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August 25, 2020

Perceived inflation and reality: understanding the difference

Remarks (delivered virtually) Lawrence L. Schembri Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario
In a virtual address to the Canadian Association for Business Economics, Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the difference between how Canadians perceive inflation and the actual measured rate. He explains why that gap may exist and what it could mean for monetary policy and the economy.

What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?

Staff discussion paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin
We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time.

Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US?

Staff working paper 2024-38 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang
We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result.

The Government of Canada Debt Securities Data Set

We present the daily time series of the outstanding amounts of all Government of Canada marketable debt securities from July 2001 to June 2017.

Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies

Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies.

Payment Habits During COVID-19: Evidence from High-Frequency Transaction Data

Staff working paper 2021-43 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Angelika Welte
We examine how consumers have adjusted their payment habits during the COVID-19 pandemic. They seem to perform fewer transactions, spend more in each transaction, use less cash at the point of sale and withdraw cash from ATMs linked to their financial institution more often than from other ATMs.
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