June 18, 2008 House Prices and Consumer Spending Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2008 Kimberly Beaton, Sylvie Morin, Ilan Kolet Flood, Morin, and Kolet examine the role of house prices in household consumption decisions. Considering a group of advanced economies, the authors find that the strength of the link between house prices and consumer spending depends on the institutional features of national mortgage markets. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments
Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting Staff Working Paper 2009-35 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E5, E52
Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate Staff Working Paper 2004-43 Ian Christensen, Christopher Reid, Frédéric Dion According to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E43
April 14, 2007 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2007 Cover page Gas Cards All gas cards pictured here are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Why Fixed Costs Matter for Proof-of-Work Based Cryptocurrencies Staff Working Paper 2020-27 Rodney J. Garratt, Maarten van Oordt Can Bitcoin survive? Some say it will become vulnerable to attacks as the rewards for processing Bitcoin transactions continue to decline. The economics of fixed costs suggest the specialized hardware used to mine Bitcoin may be key to its survival. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, L, L1, L11
The Empirical Performance of Alternative Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates Staff Working Paper 1995-12 Joseph Atta-Mensah This paper examines the empirical performance of alternatives to the monetary aggregates currently published by the Bank of Canada. The results show that real M1 and real M1a perform about equally well in providing leading information about real output at short horizons. However, on theoretical grounds, M1a is a more attractive aggregate, since it excludes […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary and financial indicators
Evaluating the portfolio balance effects of the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program on the Canadian yield curve Staff Analytical Note 2024-22 Antonio Diez de los Rios The Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, launched in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, lowered the weighted average maturity of the Government of Canada’s debt by approximately 1.4 years. This in turn reduced Canadian 10-year and 5-year zero-coupon yields by 84 and 52 basis points, respectively. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63
China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature Staff Discussion Paper 2008-5 Robert Lafrance China's integration into the world economy has benefited its people by reducing poverty and raising living standards, and it has benefited the industrialized world by producing manufactured goods at lower cost. It has also raised geopolitical concerns as China's power grows, economic concerns as the manufacturing base in many industrialized countries erodes, and polemics as proposals of protectionist measures to counter China's export growth are put forward. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33, F36
Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation Staff Working Paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37
National Saving–Investment Dynamics and International Capital Mobility Staff Working Paper 2004-14 Florian Pelgrin, Sebastian Schich The authors analyze the dynamics of national saving–investment relationships to determine the degree of international capital mobility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F3, F31