January 14, 2008 Backgrounder on Questions in the Business Outlook Survey Concerning Past Sales and Credit Conditions Starting with the winter 2007–08 survey, the results of two additional questions became included in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) publication: the balance of opinion on past sales and the balance of opinion on credit conditions. This backgrounder briefly describes the two questions and presents the correlations between the responses and relevant economic data. Content Type(s): Background materials
June 18, 2008 House Prices and Consumer Spending Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2008 Kimberly Beaton, Sylvie Morin, Ilan Kolet Flood, Morin, and Kolet examine the role of house prices in household consumption decisions. Considering a group of advanced economies, the authors find that the strength of the link between house prices and consumer spending depends on the institutional features of national mortgage markets. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments
Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate Staff Working Paper 2004-43 Ian Christensen, Christopher Reid, Frédéric Dion According to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E43
Micro Foundations of Price-Setting Behaviour: Evidence from Canadian Firms Staff Working Paper 2007-31 Daniel de Munnik, Kuan Xu How do firms adjust prices in the marketplace? Do they tend to adjust prices infrequently in response to changes in market conditions? If so, why? These remain key questions in macroeconomics, particularly for central banks that work to keep inflation low and stable. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, E, E3, E30, L, L1, L11
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters Staff Working Paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32
Real and Nominal Frictions within the Firm: How Lumpy Investment Matters for Price Adjustment Staff Working Paper 2009-36 Michael K. Johnston Real rigidities are an important feature of modern sticky price models and are policy-relevant because of their welfare consequences, but cannot be structurally identified from time series. I evaluate the plausibility of capital specificity as a source of real rigidities using a two-dimensional generalized (s,S) model calibrated to micro evidence. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E22, E3, E31
August 18, 2011 The BoC-GEM-Fin: Banking in the Global Economy Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 Carlos De Resende, René Lalonde This article describes the Bank of Canada’s version of the Global Economy Model structured to incorporate an active banking system that features an interbank market and cross-border lending. After describing the new model, the authors use it to examine the responses of selected U.S. and Canadian macroeconomic variables to a “credit crunch” in the United States and also to study the impact of changes in the regulatory limits to bank leverage in Canada. They also discuss the relative merits of a monetary policy framework based on inflation targeting and one based on price-level targeting in the presence of shocks to the U.S. and Canadian banking sectors. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy framework
Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces Staff Working Paper 2015-28 Farrukh Suvankulov A significant body of empirical studies demonstrates sizable national border effects in foreign trade of Canadian provinces throughout the 1980s and 1990s. This paper revisits and expands the scope of the border effects analysis by estimating the border effect in trade with U.S. states as well as countries in the European Union (EU) and the G 20 using more recent data from 2001–10. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F15
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Inflation and Unemployment: New Evidence Using Micro‐Level Data Staff Analytical Note 2017-6 Dany Brouillette, Natalia Kyui Recent evidence suggests that the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in the Canadian labour market has risen following the 2008–09 recession (see Brouillette, Kostyshyna and Kyui 2016). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, J, J3, J30
June 21, 2006 Financial System Review - June 2006 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report