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3046 Results

Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters

Staff Working Paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel
We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework.

Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach

Staff Working Paper 2003-8 Andrew Rennison
The author evaluates the ability of a variety of output-gap estimators to accurately measure the output gap in a model economy. A small estimated model of the Canadian economy is used to generate artificial data.

Macroprudential Rules and Monetary Policy when Financial Frictions Matter

Staff Working Paper 2012-6 Jeannine Bailliu, Césaire Meh, Yahong Zhang
This paper examines the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy and whether policy makers should respond to financial imbalances. To address this issue, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model that features financial market frictions and financial shocks as well as standard macroeconomic shocks.
March 9, 2010

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010

Spring 2010
Discussion of recent research into three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil; inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy: a review of recent evidence and experience; examination of the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules; how, when, and why such revisions to many important economic variables occur.

Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?

Staff Working Paper 2005-33 Ramdane Djoudad, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins
Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation.

Bitcoin Awareness and Usage in Canada: An Update

Staff Analytical Note 2018-23 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls
The results of our 2017 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (December 12 to 15, 2017) when compared with those from 2016 show that Bitcoin “awareness” increased from 64 to 85 per cent, while ownership increased from 2.9 to 5.0 per cent. Most Bitcoin purchasers are using the cryptocurrency as an investment and not as a means of payment for goods or services.

Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces

Staff Working Paper 2015-28 Farrukh Suvankulov
A significant body of empirical studies demonstrates sizable national border effects in foreign trade of Canadian provinces throughout the 1980s and 1990s. This paper revisits and expands the scope of the border effects analysis by estimating the border effect in trade with U.S. states as well as countries in the European Union (EU) and the G 20 using more recent data from 2001–10.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F15
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