Macroprudential Rules and Monetary Policy when Financial Frictions Matter Staff Working Paper 2012-6 Jeannine Bailliu, Césaire Meh, Yahong Zhang This paper examines the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy and whether policy makers should respond to financial imbalances. To address this issue, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model that features financial market frictions and financial shocks as well as standard macroeconomic shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50, E6, E60
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters Staff Working Paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32
Market Valuation and Risk Assessment of Canadian Banks Staff Working Paper 2004-34 Ying Liu, Mingwei Yuan, Eli Papakirykos The authors apply the asset-valuation model developed by Rabinovitch (1989) to six publicly traded Canadian banks over the period 1982–2002. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G21
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms? Staff Working Paper 2016-19 Sami Alpanda, Alexander Ueberfeldt Should monetary policy lean against housing market booms? We approach this question using a small-scale, regime-switching New Keynesian model, where housing market crashes arrive with a logit probability that depends on the level of household debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G0, G01
Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach Staff Working Paper 1996-1 Robert Vigfusson Since the early 1980s, models based on economic fundamentals have been poor at explaining the movements in the exchange rate (Messe 1990). In response to this problem, Frankel and Froot (1988) developed a model that uses two approaches to forecast the exchange rate: the fundamentalist approach, which bases the forecast on economic fundamentals, and the chartist approach, which bases the forecast on the past behaviour of the exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, G, G1, G12
The Empirical Performance of Alternative Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates Staff Working Paper 1995-12 Joseph Atta-Mensah This paper examines the empirical performance of alternatives to the monetary aggregates currently published by the Bank of Canada. The results show that real M1 and real M1a perform about equally well in providing leading information about real output at short horizons. However, on theoretical grounds, M1a is a more attractive aggregate, since it excludes […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary and financial indicators
Forecasting GDP Growth Using Artificial Neural Networks Staff Working Paper 1999-3 Greg Tkacz, Sarah Hu Financial and monetary variables have long been known to contain useful leading information regarding economic activity. In this paper, the authors wish to determine whether the forecasting performance of such variables can be improved using neural network models. The main findings are that, at the 1-quarter forecasting horizon, neural networks yield no significant forecast improvements. […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, E, E3, E37, E4, E44
Central Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab Experiments Staff Working Paper 2019-21 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen We use controlled laboratory experiments to test the causal effects of central bank communication on economic expectations and to distinguish the underlying mechanisms of those effects. In an experiment where subjects learn to forecast economic variables, we find that central bank communication has a stabilizing effect on individual and aggregate outcomes and that the size of the effect varies with the type of communication. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E5, E52
Broker Routing Decisions in Limit Order Markets Staff Working Paper 2016-50 David Cimon The primary focus of this paper is to study conflict of interest in the brokerage market. Brokers face a conflict of interest when the commissions they receive from investors differ from the costs imposed by different trading venues. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G2, G24, G28
The Impact of the Global Business Cycle on Small Open Economies: A FAVAR Approach for Canada Staff Working Paper 2011-2 Garima Vasishtha, Philipp Maier Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we use a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model with more than 260 series for 20 OECD countries to analyze how global developments affect the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F4, F41