Real and Nominal Frictions within the Firm: How Lumpy Investment Matters for Price Adjustment Staff Working Paper 2009-36 Michael K. Johnston Real rigidities are an important feature of modern sticky price models and are policy-relevant because of their welfare consequences, but cannot be structurally identified from time series. I evaluate the plausibility of capital specificity as a source of real rigidities using a two-dimensional generalized (s,S) model calibrated to micro evidence. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E22, E3, E31
Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate Staff Working Paper 2004-43 Ian Christensen, Christopher Reid, Frédéric Dion According to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E43
June 18, 2008 House Prices and Consumer Spending Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2008 Kimberly Beaton, Sylvie Morin, Ilan Kolet Flood, Morin, and Kolet examine the role of house prices in household consumption decisions. Considering a group of advanced economies, the authors find that the strength of the link between house prices and consumer spending depends on the institutional features of national mortgage markets. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments
Central Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab Experiments Staff Working Paper 2019-21 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen We use controlled laboratory experiments to test the causal effects of central bank communication on economic expectations and to distinguish the underlying mechanisms of those effects. In an experiment where subjects learn to forecast economic variables, we find that central bank communication has a stabilizing effect on individual and aggregate outcomes and that the size of the effect varies with the type of communication. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E5, E52
Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach Staff Working Paper 1996-1 Robert Vigfusson Since the early 1980s, models based on economic fundamentals have been poor at explaining the movements in the exchange rate (Messe 1990). In response to this problem, Frankel and Froot (1988) developed a model that uses two approaches to forecast the exchange rate: the fundamentalist approach, which bases the forecast on economic fundamentals, and the chartist approach, which bases the forecast on the past behaviour of the exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, G, G1, G12
May 17, 2012 Understanding Systemic Risk in the Banking Sector: A MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2012 Céline Gauthier, Moez Souissi The MacroFinancial Risk Assessment Framework (MFRAF) models the interconnections between liquidity and solvency in a financial system, with multiple institutions linked through an interbank network. The MFRAF integrates funding liquidity risk as an endogenous outcome of the interactions between solvency risk and the liquidity profiles of banks, which is a complementary approach to the new […] Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21
Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada Technical Report No. 79 Pierre St-Amant, Simon van Norden In this paper, we discuss some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24
The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2024-7 Stefano Gnocchi, Fanny McKellips, Rodrigo Sekkel, Laure Simon, Yinxi Xie, Yang Zhang We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
The Impact of the Global Business Cycle on Small Open Economies: A FAVAR Approach for Canada Staff Working Paper 2011-2 Garima Vasishtha, Philipp Maier Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we use a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model with more than 260 series for 20 OECD countries to analyze how global developments affect the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F4, F41
On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve Staff Working Paper 2001-4 Maral Kichian This paper empirically determines why, during the 1990s, inflation in Canada was consistently more stable than predicted by the fixed-coefficients Phillips curve. A time-varying-coefficient model, where all the parameters adjust simultaneously, shows that the behaviour of expectations was probably a major contributing factor. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37