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3045 Results

Affine Term-Structure Models: Theory and Implementation

Staff Working Paper 2001-15 David Bolder
Affine models describe the stylized time-series properties of the term structure of interest rates in a reasonable manner, they generalize relatively easily to higher dimensions, and a vast academic literature exists relating to their implementation. This combination of characteristics makes the affine class a natural introductory point for modelling interest rate dynamics.

Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada

Staff Analytical Note 2016-12 Martin Kuncl
During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM).
June 18, 2008

House Prices and Consumer Spending

Flood, Morin, and Kolet examine the role of house prices in household consumption decisions. Considering a group of advanced economies, the authors find that the strength of the link between house prices and consumer spending depends on the institutional features of national mortgage markets.

Micro Foundations of Price-Setting Behaviour: Evidence from Canadian Firms

Staff Working Paper 2007-31 Daniel de Munnik, Kuan Xu
How do firms adjust prices in the marketplace? Do they tend to adjust prices infrequently in response to changes in market conditions? If so, why? These remain key questions in macroeconomics, particularly for central banks that work to keep inflation low and stable.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D4, D40, E, E3, E30, L, L1, L11

Forecasting with Many Models: Model Confidence Sets and Forecast Combination

Staff Working Paper 2013-11 Jon D. Samuels, Rodrigo Sekkel
A longstanding finding in the forecasting literature is that averaging forecasts from different models often improves upon forecasts based on a single model, with equal weight averaging working particularly well. This paper analyzes the effects of trimming the set of models prior to averaging.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53

Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters

Staff Working Paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel
We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework.

Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies

Staff Working Paper 2006-22 Anna Piretti, Charles St-Arnaud
The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E3, E37
November 28, 2017

Shoring Up the Foundations for a More Resilient Banking System: The Development of Basel III

The authors trace the development of the Basel III standards for banking regulation. Basel III builds on two earlier frameworks, in response to weaknesses revealed during the global financial crisis. They highlight how implementation of the standards will underpin greater financial stability and provide a sound foundation for economic growth.

A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States

Staff Working Paper 1997-20 Iris Claus
A monetary authority with the primary objective of price stability has to distinguish between temporary price shocks and persistent shocks to the rate of inflation. A measure of underlying inflation, therefore, has an important role to play as a guideline for monetary policy.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
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