Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches Staff analytical note 2018-34 Andrew Lee-Poy In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C13, C14, C18, C3, C32, C5, C51, C52, E, E3, E32, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models
More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies Staff working paper 2022-20 Michelle Alexopoulos, Xinfen Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Xu Zhang We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Increases in the Chair’s text-, voice-, or face-emotion indices during these testimonies generally raise stock prices and lower their volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
February 19, 2015 Inflation, Expectations and Monetary Policy Remarks Agathe Côté Association québécoise des technologies Mont-Tremblant, Quebec Deputy Governor Agathe Côté discusses the importance of inflation expectations for monetary policy and a new survey the Bank of Canada created to monitor household expectations. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
March 9, 2010 Inflation Expectations and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Evidence and Experience Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Rose Cunningham, Brigitte Desroches, Eric Santor This article explores the role of inflation expectations in the conduct of monetary policy. It reviews the various measures of inflation expectations used by central banks, including surveys and market-based indicators, and considers their advantages and disadvantages. It examines the critical role of inflation expectations in the framework that central banks use to understand, forecast, and control inflation. It also looks at their role as an indicator of central bank credibility. The behaviour of inflation expectations over the past two years is analyzed and policy conclusions are offered. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Monetary Policy Implementation and Payment System Modernization Staff working paper 2020-26 Jonathan Witmer Canada plans to adopt a retail payment system to allow Canadians to pay in real time (or near real time) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. However, the traditional model for setting the overnight interest rate does not operate 24/7. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
February 9, 2022 The role of Canadian business in fostering non-inflationary growth Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Canadian Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how business investment and stronger productivity are vital to sustaining non-inflationary economic growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Amazon Effects in Canadian Online Retail Firm-Product-Level Data Staff working paper 2019-42 Alex Chernoff I use firm-product-level data for Canadian online retailers to study how product scope (the average number of product categories per firm) evolved from 1999 to 2012. During this period, product scope dropped monotonically from 59 to 5 product categories. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L1, L11, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures Staff working paper 2016-10 Fuchun Li, Héctor Pérez Saiz We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
December 22, 2003 Current Account Imbalances: Some Key Issues for the Major Industrialized Countries Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2003-2004 Jocelyn Jacob The resurgence of sizable current account imbalances in the major economies in recent years, particularly the tripling of the U.S. deficit, has led to renewed academic and public discussions about their sustainability. Jacob's main objective is to show that current account balances are simply the outcome of various relative structural and cyclical forces between trading partners. He reviews the factors behind the changes in the current account positions of the three largest industrial economies (the United States, Japan, and the euro area). Two strong determinants shaping the current account balances are the faster increase in U.S. productivity compared with that of other major economies and, more recently, the loosening in the U.S. fiscal stance. Jacob also reviews a range of outside assessments from such sources as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund, as well as the academic literature, to determine the possible risks to macroeconomic and financial stability. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Policy Rules for Capital Controls Staff working paper 2017-42 Gurnain Pasricha This paper attempts to borrow the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions in monetary policy literature and apply it to capital controls policy literature. Using a novel weekly dataset on capital controls policy actions in 21 emerging economies over the period 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2015, I examine the mercantilist and macroprudential motivations for capital control policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4, F5, G, G0, G1 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness