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2133 Results

The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I

Staff analytical note 2016-15 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin
In this analytical note we show that the share of the systematic variations in the Canadian dollar has risen significantly in the past two decades. Systematic variations in the exchange rate are shared with other currencies. This parallels the equity market, where variations in the price of a given stock are shared with variations in the prices of other stocks.

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence from Micro- Level Data

Staff working paper 2016-40 Dany Brouillette, Olena Kostyshyna, Natalia Kyui
We assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Canada using both firm- and worker-level microdata. In particular, we analyze employer-level administrative data from the Major Wage Settlements (MWS) and household-based survey data from the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID).

U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields

Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies.

Characterizing the Canadian Financial Cycle with Frequency Filtering Approaches

Staff analytical note 2018-34 Andrew Lee-Poy
In this note, I use two multivariate frequency filtering approaches to characterize the Canadian financial cycle by capturing fluctuations in the underlying variables with respect to a long-term trend. The first approach is a dynamically weighted composite, and the second is a stochastic cycle model.

The Causal Impact of Migration on US Trade: Evidence from Political Refugees

Staff working paper 2017-49 Walter Steingress
Immigrants can increase international trade by shifting preferences towards the goods of their country of origin and by reducing bilateral transaction costs. Using geographical variation across U.S. states for the period 2008 to 2013, I estimate the respective causal impact of immigrants on U.S. exports and imports.
March 9, 2010

Inflation Expectations and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Evidence and Experience

This article explores the role of inflation expectations in the conduct of monetary policy. It reviews the various measures of inflation expectations used by central banks, including surveys and market-based indicators, and considers their advantages and disadvantages. It examines the critical role of inflation expectations in the framework that central banks use to understand, forecast, and control inflation. It also looks at their role as an indicator of central bank credibility. The behaviour of inflation expectations over the past two years is analyzed and policy conclusions are offered.

Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures

Staff working paper 2016-10 Fuchun Li, Héctor Pérez Saiz
We measure systemic risk in the network of financial market infrastructures (FMIs) as the probability that two or more FMIs have a large credit risk exposure to the same FMI participant.

COVID-19 and Implications for Automation

Staff working paper 2021-25 Alex Chernoff, Casey Warman
Occupations held by females with mid-level education face the highest risk of accelerated automation as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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