U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields Staff working paper 2024-12 Bingxin Ann Xing, Bruno Feunou, Morvan Nongni-Donfack, Rodrigo Sekkel Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G14 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
From Micro to Macro Hysteresis: Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2024-39 Felipe Alves, Giovanni L. Violante We explore the long-run effects of a monetary policy shock in a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model built on the micro evidence that job losses lead to persistently lower individual earnings through a combination of skill decay and abandonment of the labour force. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, J, J2, J24, J6, J64 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Estimating the impacts on GDP of natural disasters in Canada Staff analytical note 2025-5 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Thibaut Duprey, Craig Johnston Extreme weather events contribute to increased volatility in both economic activity and prices, interfering with the assessment of the true underlying trends of the economy. With this in mind, we conduct a timely assessment of the impact of natural disasters on Canadian gross domestic product (GDP). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): B, B2, B23, C, C1, C13, C2, C23, E, E1, E17, E3, E37, E6, E62, H, H6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change
May 13, 2014 Beyond the Unemployment Rate: Assessing Canadian and U.S. Labour Markets Since the Great Recession Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Konrad Zmitrowicz, Mikael Khan This article provides a broad perspective on the performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States since the Great Recession. It also presents a simple way to summarize much of this information in a single composite labour market indicator (LMI) for both countries. The LMI suggests that the unemployment rate in Canada has evolved largely in line with overall labour market conditions since the recession, but may have modestly overstated the extent of recent improvement. The U.S. unemployment rate, in contrast, appears to have substantially overstated the post-recession improvement in labour market conditions. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J23
May 16, 2013 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2013 This issue includes analysis of the unconventional monetary policies recently implemented by central banks, and also presents Bank research in two areas - the migration of labour between economic regions in Canada, and the asset-allocation and funding decisions for Canada’s foreign exchange reserves. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
February 17, 2011 Payment Networks: A Review of Recent Research Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2010-2011 James Chapman, Lana Embree, Tom Roberts, Nellie Zhang In this article, the authors review work done at the Bank of Canada and at other central banks with the relatively new application of network analysis to the study of payments systems. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
December 13, 2007 Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2007-2008 Marc-André Gosselin Gosselin examines and reports on the various factors that contribute to successful inflation targeting. Using a panel of 21 inflation-targeting countries over the period 1990Q1-2007Q2, Gosselin finds that the ability of central banks to hit their targets varies considerably. Some of these differences can be explained by exchange rate fluctuations, fiscal deficits, and differences in financial development. Others are explained by differences in the targeting framework itself and the manner in which it is implemented. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Timing of Banks’ Loan Loss Provisioning During the Crisis Staff working paper 2016-27 Leo de Haan, Maarten van Oordt We estimate a panel error correction model for loan loss provisions, using unique supervisory data on flow of funds into and out of the allowance for loan losses of 25 Dutch banks in the post-2008 crisis period. We find that these banks aim for an allowance of 49% of impaired loans. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
September 7, 2012 Dutch Disease Remarks Mark Carney Spruce Meadows Round Table Calgary, Alberta Governor Mark Carney discusses the impact of high commodity prices for the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
November 18, 2010 Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2010 Fuchun Li, Pierre St-Amant The recent global crisis was characterized by a remarkable intensity in the negative feedback process between financial sector developments and the real economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles