February 1, 2012 Recent Developments in Markets for Credit-Risk Transfer Financial System Review - June 2003 John Kiff Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
To Share or Not to Share? Uncovered Losses in a Derivatives Clearinghouse Staff working paper 2016-4 Radoslav Raykov This paper studies how the allocation of residual losses affects trading and welfare in a central counterparty. I compare loss sharing under two loss-allocation mechanisms – variation margin haircutting and cash calls – and study the privately and socially optimal degree of loss sharing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G19, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound Staff discussion paper 2021-10 Yang Zhang, Lena Suchanek, Jonathan Swarbrick, Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Natural disasters and inflation in Canada Staff analytical note 2025-8 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes How do storms, floods and wildfires affect consumer prices? In the short term, natural disasters can significantly increase volatility in Canada-wide inflation. Over the long term, natural disasters influence inflation in shelter prices, especially when provincial output is already weak relative to trend. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Climate change
May 1, 2013 Monetary Policy After the Fall Remarks Mark Carney Eric J. Hanson Memorial Lecture University of Alberta Edmonton, Alberta Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney discusses the future of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Integrating Non-traditional Data and AI into Central Banking: A Canadian Perspective Staff analytical paper 2026-17 James Chapman, Ajit Desai, Maryam Haghighi, James (Jim) C. MacGee This paper reviews how central banks are integrating non traditional data and artificial intelligence (AI) into policy analysis and operations. Using the Bank of Canada’s experience, it examines emerging applications, governance challenges, and strategic choices for responsibly scaling AI to enhance insight, efficiency, and institutional resilience. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, C5, C55, C8, C88, L, L2, L23, M, M1, M15, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities Staff analytical note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Incentive Compatibility on the Blockchain Staff working paper 2018-34 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl A blockchain is a digital ledger that keeps track of a record of ownership without the need for a designated party to update and enforce changes to the record. The updating of the ledger is done directly by the users of the blockchain and is traditionally governed by a proof-of-work (PoW) protocol. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, H, H4, P, P4, P43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals Staff working paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E0, E00, E4, E47, E7 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes Staff working paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk