Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle Staff working paper 2020-25 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, F, F3, F32, F4, F42, G, G1, G15, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Windfall Income Shocks with Finite Planning Horizons Staff working paper 2022-40 Michael Boutros How do households respond when they receive unanticipated income, such as an inheritance or government stimulus cheque? This paper studies these windfall income shocks through a model of household behaviour that generates a realistic consumption response for households along the entire distribution of wealth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D9, D91, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
May 13, 2014 The Canadian Dollar as a Reserve Currency Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Lukasz Pomorski, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Eric Wolfe This article provides an overview of the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves. Based on International Monetary Fund data and on internal Bank of Canada analysis, we estimate that the total reserve holdings of Canadian-dollar assets increased from negligible levels before 2008 to around US$200 billion in the third quarter of 2013. We discuss the determinants of this increase, as well as its potential impact on Canadian debt markets, for example, lower yields and therefore reduced financing costs for the Government of Canada, and the possible negative impact on market liquidity. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth Staff analytical note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Is the Financial System More Resilient? Staff discussion paper 2016-12 Patricia Palhau Mora, Michael Januska Monetary policy and financial stability are closely intertwined, and the resilience of the financial system carries weight in this relationship. This paper explores whether the financial system is more resilient as a result of the G20’s post-crisis agenda for financial regulatory reform. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G23, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
November 12, 2020 Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
June 8, 2023 Economic progress report: Are we entering a new era of higher interest rates? Remarks Paul Beaudry Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce Victoria, British Columbia Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses the latest interest rate decision and suggests reasons why longer-term interest rates could remain higher than they were before the pandemic. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey Design Staff working paper 2017-43 Heng Chen, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Rallye Shen Changes in survey mode (e.g., online, offline) may influence the values of survey responses, and may be particularly problematic when comparing repeated cross-sectional surveys. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share? Staff working paper 2019-3 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E22, E25, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
March 16, 2008 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2008 Cover Page Canada's First Coinage Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review