The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve: An Assessment of Competing Specifications for the United States Staff Working Paper 2004-31 David Dupuis Inflation forecasting is fundamental to monetary policy. In practice, however, economists are faced with competing goals: accuracy and theoretical consistency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Estimating Policy-Neutral Interest Rates for Canada Using a Dynamic Stochastic General-Equilibrium Framework Staff Working Paper 2004-9 Jean-Paul Lam, Greg Tkacz In an era when the primary policy instrument is the level of the short-term interest rate, a comparison of that rate with some equilibrium rate can be a useful guide for policy and a convenient method to measure the stance of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37
International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach Staff Working Paper 2004-42 Rui Albuquerque, Martin Schneider, Gregory Bauer The authors model trading by foreign and domestic investors in developed-country equity markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G1, G12, G14, G15
Estimating the Appropriate Quantity of Settlement Balances in a Floor System Staff Discussion Paper 2023-26 Narayan Bulusu, Matthew McNeely, Kaetlynd McRae, Jonathan Witmer This paper presents two complementary approaches to estimating the appropriate quantity of settlement balances needed to effectively operate monetary policy under a floor system in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28
November 17, 2016 Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Jeannine Bailliu, Christopher Hajzler Growth has slowed in many emerging-market economies (EMEs) since the 2007–09 global financial crisis, reflecting both cyclical and structural factors. In this context, it will be in-creasingly important for EMEs to raise potential growth by maintaining steady progress on structural reforms. How do structural reforms generally support growth? What are the re-form priorities for EMEs over recent history and today? Finally, what will be the impact of planned structural reforms on potential output growth among the world’s larger EMEs? These are some of the questions considered by the authors. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Development economics, International topics, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E6, E61, E65, O, O1, O11, O4, O41
Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators? Staff Working Paper 2005-33 Ramdane Djoudad, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32
May 16, 2013 Explaining Canada’s Regional Migration Patterns Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2013 David Amirault, Daniel de Munnik, Sarah Miller Understanding the factors that determine the migration of labour between regions is crucial for assessing the economy’s response to macroeconomic shocks and identifying policies that will encourage an efficient reallocation of labour. By examining the determinants of migration within Canada from 1991 to 2006, this article provides evidence that regional differences in employment rates and household incomes tend to increase labour migration, and that provincial borders and language differences are barriers to migration. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): J, J6, J61, R, R2, R23
Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2016-12 Martin Kuncl During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E6, E65, G, G2, G28
CBDC and Monetary Sovereignty Staff Analytical Note 2020-5 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Yu Zhu In an increasingly digitalized world, issuers of private digital currency can weaken central banks’ ability to stabilize the economy. By continuing to make central bank money attractive as a payment instrument in a digital world, a central bank digital currency (CDBC) could help to maintain a country’s monetary sovereignty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F5, F55, G, G1, G15
The Effect of Adjustment Costs and Organizational Change on Productivity in Canada: Evidence from Aggregate Data Staff Working Paper 2004-1 Danny Leung A basic neoclassical model of production is often used to assess the contribution of investment to output growth. In the model, investment raises the capital stock and output growth increases in proportion to the growth in capital. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): O, O3, O31, O4, O49