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3019 Results

Macroprudential Rules and Monetary Policy when Financial Frictions Matter

Staff Working Paper 2012-6 Jeannine Bailliu, Césaire Meh, Yahong Zhang
This paper examines the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy and whether policy makers should respond to financial imbalances. To address this issue, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model that features financial market frictions and financial shocks as well as standard macroeconomic shocks.

Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach

Staff Working Paper 1996-1 Robert Vigfusson
Since the early 1980s, models based on economic fundamentals have been poor at explaining the movements in the exchange rate (Messe 1990). In response to this problem, Frankel and Froot (1988) developed a model that uses two approaches to forecast the exchange rate: the fundamentalist approach, which bases the forecast on economic fundamentals, and the chartist approach, which bases the forecast on the past behaviour of the exchange rate.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, G, G1, G12
December 13, 1999

Feedback Rules for Inflation Control: An Overview of Recent Literature

Feedback rules are rules aimed at guiding policy-makers as they face the problem of keeping inflation close to a desired path without causing variability elsewhere in the economy. These rules link short-term interest rates, controlled by the central bank, to the rate of inflation and/or its deviation from a target rate. The authors describe the most popular types of feedback rules and review some simulation results.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates
November 15, 2012

Monetary Policy and the Risk-Taking Channel: Insights from the Lending Behaviour of Banks

The financial crisis of 2007-09 and the subsequent extended period of historically low real interest rates have revived the question of whether economic agents are willing to take on more risk when interest rates remain low for a prolonged time period. This increased appetite for risk, which causes economic agents to search for investment assets and strategies that generate higher investment returns, has been called the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Recent academic research on banks suggests that lending policies in times of low interest rates can be consistent with the existence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy in Europe, South America, the United States and Canada. Specifically, studies find that the terms of loans to risky borrowers become less stringent in periods of low interest rates. This risk-taking channel may amplify the effects of traditional transmission mechanisms, resulting in the creation of excessive credit.

Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model

Staff Working Paper 2001-23 Ying Liu
This paper uses a smooth transition error-correction model (STECM) to model the one-year and five-year mortgage rate changes. The model allows for a non-linear adjustment process of mortgage rates towards their long-run equilibrium.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C4, C49, E, E4, E47

Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate

Staff Working Paper 2004-43 Ian Christensen, Christopher Reid, Frédéric Dion
According to the Fisher hypothesis, the gap between Canadian nominal and Real Return Bond yields (or break-even inflation rate) should be a good measure of inflation expectations.

Price-Level versus Inflation Targeting in a Small Open Economy

Staff Working Paper 2001-24 Gabriel Srour
This paper compares two types of monetary policy: price-level targeting and inflation targeting. It reviews recent arguments that favour price-level targeting, and examines how certain factors, such as the nature of the shocks affecting the economy and the degree to which agents are forward-looking, bear upon the arguments.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

Real and Nominal Frictions within the Firm: How Lumpy Investment Matters for Price Adjustment

Staff Working Paper 2009-36 Michael K. Johnston
Real rigidities are an important feature of modern sticky price models and are policy-relevant because of their welfare consequences, but cannot be structurally identified from time series. I evaluate the plausibility of capital specificity as a source of real rigidities using a two-dimensional generalized (s,S) model calibrated to micro evidence.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E22, E3, E31

Central Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab Experiments

Staff Working Paper 2019-21 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen
We use controlled laboratory experiments to test the causal effects of central bank communication on economic expectations and to distinguish the underlying mechanisms of those effects. In an experiment where subjects learn to forecast economic variables, we find that central bank communication has a stabilizing effect on individual and aggregate outcomes and that the size of the effect varies with the type of communication.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E5, E52
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