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2154 Results

Good Volatility, Bad Volatility and Option Pricing

Staff working paper 2017-52 Bruno Feunou, Cédric Okou
Advances in variance analysis permit the splitting of the total quadratic variation of a jump diffusion process into upside and downside components. Recent studies establish that this decomposition enhances volatility predictions, and highlight the upside/downside variance spread as a driver of the asymmetry in stock price distributions.
June 21, 2008

Financial Market Turmoil and Central Bank Intervention

In this article, we consider central bank intervention to address financial market turmoil with a focus on the questions of why, when, and how a central bank might intervene. We set out a policy framework and identify appropriate central bank instruments to respond to extraordinary financial market turmoil, consistent with central bank policy goals and functions.

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update

We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.
May 14, 2015

Inflation Dynamics in the Post-Crisis Period

Inflation rates in advanced economies experienced two consecutive puzzles during the period following the global financial crisis—unexpectedly high inflation from the end of 2009 to 2011 and unexpectedly low inflation from 2012 to the middle of 2014. We investigate these developments in two ways. First, we show that accounting for inflation expectations by households explains a significant share of the inflation puzzles at the international level. Second, we find that, for Canada, elevated competition in the retail sector is also important for understanding inflation dynamics in the post-crisis period.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, F, F4, F41

How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models

Staff working paper 2017-32 Benjamin Klaus, Thibaut Duprey
This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state.

Redefining Financial Inclusion for a Digital Age: Implications for a Central Bank Digital Currency

We explore quantitative and qualitative information about Canadians who face barriers to making digital payments. We also consider the implications of ongoing digitalization for modern financial inclusion and a potential central bank digital currency.

Reviewing Canada’s Monetary Policy Implementation System: Does the Evolving Environment Support Maintaining a Floor System?

Staff discussion paper 2023-10 Toni Gravelle, Ron Morrow, Jonathan Witmer
At the onset of the pandemic, the Bank of Canada transitioned its framework for monetary policy implementation from a corridor system to a floor system, which it has since decided to maintain. We provide a comprehensive analysis of both frameworks and assess their relative merits based on five key criteria that define a sound framework.
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