June 11, 2015 Canadian Open-End Mutual Funds: An Assessment of Potential Vulnerabilities Financial System Review - June 2015 Sandra Ramirez, Jesus Sierra, Jonathan Witmer The authors examine the liquidity and leverage characteristics of Canadian long-term, open-end mutual funds in terms of their potential systemic effects on the Canadian mutual fund sector and on the Canadian financial system more broadly. In their overall assessment of this sector, they consider the regulation, market size and ownership structure of mutual funds in Canada and provide observations about the industry globally. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G2, G23, G28
Redefining Financial Inclusion for a Digital Age: Implications for a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff discussion paper 2023-22 Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, John Miedema, Jiamin Dai, Badr Omrane We explore quantitative and qualitative information about Canadians who face barriers to making digital payments. We also consider the implications of ongoing digitalization for modern financial inclusion and a potential central bank digital currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, E, E4, E42, E5, E50, I, I3, I31, O, O3, O33, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases Staff working paper 2021-54 Xu Zhang I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Windfall Income Shocks with Finite Planning Horizons Staff working paper 2022-40 Michael Boutros How do households respond when they receive unanticipated income, such as an inheritance or government stimulus cheque? This paper studies these windfall income shocks through a model of household behaviour that generates a realistic consumption response for households along the entire distribution of wealth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D9, D91, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Appendix and References Technical report No. 125 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Joe Berry Since 2014, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. The database is posted on the BoC’s website and is updated annually in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey Design Staff working paper 2017-43 Heng Chen, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Rallye Shen Changes in survey mode (e.g., online, offline) may influence the values of survey responses, and may be particularly problematic when comparing repeated cross-sectional surveys. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023 Staff analytical note 2023-5 Salma Ahmed, Aviel Avshalumov, Tania Chaar, Eshini Ekanayake, Helen Lao, Louis Poirier, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Argyn Toktamyssov, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Good Volatility, Bad Volatility and Option Pricing Staff working paper 2017-52 Bruno Feunou, Cédric Okou Advances in variance analysis permit the splitting of the total quadratic variation of a jump diffusion process into upside and downside components. Recent studies establish that this decomposition enhances volatility predictions, and highlight the upside/downside variance spread as a driver of the asymmetry in stock price distributions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
April 26, 2002 The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policies Lecture David Dodge School of Policy Studies Queen's University Kingston, Ontario Donald Gow had a great interest in public administration and in budgetary reform in the federal government.1 He was one in a long line of Queen's professors who have focused on various budgetary matters at the federal level. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures
More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies Staff working paper 2022-20 Michelle Alexopoulos, Xinfen Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Xu Zhang We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Increases in the Chair’s text-, voice-, or face-emotion indices during these testimonies generally raise stock prices and lower their volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission