Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle Staff working paper 2020-25 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, F, F3, F32, F4, F42, G, G1, G15, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve Staff working paper 2022-7 Christian Friedrich, Peter Selcuk Globalization is in retreat, yet digitalization is on the rise. How will these trends impact inflation? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, F, F6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
May 21, 2004 Are Wealth Effects Important for Canada? Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2004 Lise Pichette Some analysts believe that a sharp rise in equity values was an important factor in the strong consumer spending between 1995 and 2000. Empirical evidence suggests, however, that consumer spending responds more to changes in housing wealth than it does to equity wealth. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth Staff analytical note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share? Staff working paper 2019-3 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E22, E25, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
June 21, 2008 A Model of Tiered Settlement Networks Financial System Review - June 2008 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
October 24, 2016 Renewal of the Inflation-Control Target (October 2016) Commentary and technical data relating to the 2016 target renewal. Content Type(s): Background materials
November 12, 2020 Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
November 19, 2010 Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined? Some Recent Insights from the Literature Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2010 Jeannine Bailliu, Wei Dong, John Murray Building on an earlier Review article, the authors critically reassess the premise that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) has declined in light of recent studies of the issue in the context of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium framework. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Estimating the impacts on GDP of natural disasters in Canada Staff analytical note 2025-5 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Thibaut Duprey, Craig Johnston Extreme weather events contribute to increased volatility in both economic activity and prices, interfering with the assessment of the true underlying trends of the economy. With this in mind, we conduct a timely assessment of the impact of natural disasters on Canadian gross domestic product (GDP). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): B, B2, B23, C, C1, C13, C2, C23, E, E1, E17, E3, E37, E6, E62, H, H6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change