Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023 Staff analytical note 2023-5 Salma Ahmed, Aviel Avshalumov, Tania Chaar, Eshini Ekanayake, Helen Lao, Louis Poirier, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Argyn Toktamyssov, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve Staff working paper 2022-7 Christian Friedrich, Peter Selcuk Globalization is in retreat, yet digitalization is on the rise. How will these trends impact inflation? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, F, F6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth Staff analytical note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle Staff working paper 2020-25 Christian Friedrich, Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon We propose a new strength measure of the global financial cycle by estimating a regime-switching factor model on cross-border equity flows for 61 countries. We then assess how the strength of the global financial cycle affects monetary policy independence, which is defined as the response of central banks' policy interest rates to exogenous changes in inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, F, F3, F32, F4, F42, G, G1, G15, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
November 12, 2020 Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Government of Canada Securities in the Cash, Repo and Securities Lending Markets Staff discussion paper 2018-4 Narayan Bulusu, Sermin Gungor This paper documents the properties of Government of Canada securities in cash, repo and securities lending transactions over their life cycle. By tracking every security from issuance to maturity, we are able to highlight inter-linkages between the markets for cash and for specific securities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
June 21, 2008 A Model of Tiered Settlement Networks Financial System Review - June 2008 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
June 11, 2015 Canadian Open-End Mutual Funds: An Assessment of Potential Vulnerabilities Financial System Review - June 2015 Sandra Ramirez, Jesus Sierra, Jonathan Witmer The authors examine the liquidity and leverage characteristics of Canadian long-term, open-end mutual funds in terms of their potential systemic effects on the Canadian mutual fund sector and on the Canadian financial system more broadly. In their overall assessment of this sector, they consider the regulation, market size and ownership structure of mutual funds in Canada and provide observations about the industry globally. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G2, G23, G28
Reviewing Canada’s Monetary Policy Implementation System: Does the Evolving Environment Support Maintaining a Floor System? Staff discussion paper 2023-10 Toni Gravelle, Ron Morrow, Jonathan Witmer At the onset of the pandemic, the Bank of Canada transitioned its framework for monetary policy implementation from a corridor system to a floor system, which it has since decided to maintain. We provide a comprehensive analysis of both frameworks and assess their relative merits based on five key criteria that define a sound framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Windfall Income Shocks with Finite Planning Horizons Staff working paper 2022-40 Michael Boutros How do households respond when they receive unanticipated income, such as an inheritance or government stimulus cheque? This paper studies these windfall income shocks through a model of household behaviour that generates a realistic consumption response for households along the entire distribution of wealth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D9, D91, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission