Search

Content Types

Subjects

Authors

Research Themes

JEL Codes

Sources

Published After

Published Before

2166 Results

How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models

Staff working paper 2017-32 Benjamin Klaus, Thibaut Duprey
This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state.

Reviewing Canada’s Monetary Policy Implementation System: Does the Evolving Environment Support Maintaining a Floor System?

Staff discussion paper 2023-10 Toni Gravelle, Ron Morrow, Jonathan Witmer
At the onset of the pandemic, the Bank of Canada transitioned its framework for monetary policy implementation from a corridor system to a floor system, which it has since decided to maintain. We provide a comprehensive analysis of both frameworks and assess their relative merits based on five key criteria that define a sound framework.

Sources of Borrowing and Fiscal Multipliers

Staff working paper 2018-32 Romanos Priftis, Srecko Zimic
This paper finds that debt-financed government spending multipliers vary considerably depending on the location of the debt buyer. In a sample of 33 countries, we find that government spending multipliers are larger when government purchases are financed by issuing debt to foreign investors (non-residents), compared with when government purchases are financed by issuing debt to home investors (residents).

The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2019?

Staff working paper 2019-39 David Beers, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit
Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE).

Redefining Financial Inclusion for a Digital Age: Implications for a Central Bank Digital Currency

We explore quantitative and qualitative information about Canadians who face barriers to making digital payments. We also consider the implications of ongoing digitalization for modern financial inclusion and a potential central bank digital currency.

U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields

Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies.

Estimating the impacts on GDP of natural disasters in Canada

Staff analytical note 2025-5 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Thibaut Duprey, Craig Johnston
Extreme weather events contribute to increased volatility in both economic activity and prices, interfering with the assessment of the true underlying trends of the economy. With this in mind, we conduct a timely assessment of the impact of natural disasters on Canadian gross domestic product (GDP).
Go To Page