Windfall Income Shocks with Finite Planning Horizons Staff working paper 2022-40 Michael Boutros How do households respond when they receive unanticipated income, such as an inheritance or government stimulus cheque? This paper studies these windfall income shocks through a model of household behaviour that generates a realistic consumption response for households along the entire distribution of wealth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D9, D91, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve Staff working paper 2022-7 Christian Friedrich, Peter Selcuk Globalization is in retreat, yet digitalization is on the rise. How will these trends impact inflation? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, F, F6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey Design Staff working paper 2017-43 Heng Chen, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Rallye Shen Changes in survey mode (e.g., online, offline) may influence the values of survey responses, and may be particularly problematic when comparing repeated cross-sectional surveys. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
June 11, 2009 The Changing Pace of Labour Reallocation in Canada: Causes and Consequences Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2009 Danny Leung, Shutao Cao The number of job gains and losses across firms in Canada each year is roughly one-fifth the total number of jobs and generally occurs within sectors (industries) rather than across sectors. Since labour reallocation within sectors has been strongly related to productivity growth in Canada, defining the key drivers of this type of reallocation is important, given the higher rates of reallocation and productivity growth in the Untied States than in Canada. This article finds that the appreciation of the Canadian dollar and rising commodity prices led to above-average reallocation of labour across sectors over the 2005-08 period, but that the impact on productivity has been minor. Labour reallocation across firms, however, generates substantial labour productivity gains in manufacturing and the business sector as a whole. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Redefining Financial Inclusion for a Digital Age: Implications for a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff discussion paper 2023-22 Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, John Miedema, Jiamin Dai, Badr Omrane We explore quantitative and qualitative information about Canadians who face barriers to making digital payments. We also consider the implications of ongoing digitalization for modern financial inclusion and a potential central bank digital currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, E, E4, E42, E5, E50, I, I3, I31, O, O3, O33, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
June 21, 2008 Financial Market Turmoil and Central Bank Intervention Financial System Review - June 2008 Walter Engert, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins In this article, we consider central bank intervention to address financial market turmoil with a focus on the questions of why, when, and how a central bank might intervene. We set out a policy framework and identify appropriate central bank instruments to respond to extraordinary financial market turmoil, consistent with central bank policy goals and functions. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth Staff analytical note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Government of Canada Securities in the Cash, Repo and Securities Lending Markets Staff discussion paper 2018-4 Narayan Bulusu, Sermin Gungor This paper documents the properties of Government of Canada securities in cash, repo and securities lending transactions over their life cycle. By tracking every security from issuance to maturity, we are able to highlight inter-linkages between the markets for cash and for specific securities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share? Staff working paper 2019-3 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E22, E25, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
November 12, 2020 Exploring life after COVID-19: the far side of the moon Remarks (delivered virtually) Carolyn A. Wilkins Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses what the economy will need once we’re past the COVID-19 crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework