Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach Staff working paper 2016-21 Fuchun Li, Hongyu Xiao We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
May 17, 2012 On the Adjustment of the Global Economy Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2012 Carlos De Resende, Claudia Godbout, René Lalonde, Eric Morin, Nikita Perevalov This article discusses three scenarios for the adjustment of the global economy. In a “baseline” scenario—which encompasses fiscal consolidation in major advanced economies, growth-friendly structural reforms in Europe and Japan, and greater exchange rate flexibility and reforms in the emerging-market economies of Asia to induce rotation of demand away from net exports—global current account imbalances […] Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F37, F4, F42
The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices Staff discussion paper 2016-7 Mark Kruger, Kun Mo, Benjamin Sawatzky The Chinese housing market has grown rapidly following its liberalization in the 1990s, generating significant economic activity and demand for base metals. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Chinese housing market and quantify its importance for the overall Chinese economy and its linkages to base metal prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): Q, Q3, Q31, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach Staff working paper 2020-40 Christopher S. Sutherland How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023 Staff analytical note 2023-5 Salma Ahmed, Aviel Avshalumov, Tania Chaar, Eshini Ekanayake, Helen Lao, Louis Poirier, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Argyn Toktamyssov, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Government of Canada Securities in the Cash, Repo and Securities Lending Markets Staff discussion paper 2018-4 Narayan Bulusu, Sermin Gungor This paper documents the properties of Government of Canada securities in cash, repo and securities lending transactions over their life cycle. By tracking every security from issuance to maturity, we are able to highlight inter-linkages between the markets for cash and for specific securities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
June 21, 2008 A Model of Tiered Settlement Networks Financial System Review - June 2008 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
June 11, 2015 Canadian Open-End Mutual Funds: An Assessment of Potential Vulnerabilities Financial System Review - June 2015 Sandra Ramirez, Jesus Sierra, Jonathan Witmer The authors examine the liquidity and leverage characteristics of Canadian long-term, open-end mutual funds in terms of their potential systemic effects on the Canadian mutual fund sector and on the Canadian financial system more broadly. In their overall assessment of this sector, they consider the regulation, market size and ownership structure of mutual funds in Canada and provide observations about the industry globally. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G2, G23, G28
Reviewing Canada’s Monetary Policy Implementation System: Does the Evolving Environment Support Maintaining a Floor System? Staff discussion paper 2023-10 Toni Gravelle, Ron Morrow, Jonathan Witmer At the onset of the pandemic, the Bank of Canada transitioned its framework for monetary policy implementation from a corridor system to a floor system, which it has since decided to maintain. We provide a comprehensive analysis of both frameworks and assess their relative merits based on five key criteria that define a sound framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Windfall Income Shocks with Finite Planning Horizons Staff working paper 2022-40 Michael Boutros How do households respond when they receive unanticipated income, such as an inheritance or government stimulus cheque? This paper studies these windfall income shocks through a model of household behaviour that generates a realistic consumption response for households along the entire distribution of wealth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D9, D91, E, E2, E21, G, G5, G51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission