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3046 Results

June 2, 2006

Another Look at the Inflation-Target Horizon

The conduct of monetary policy within an inflation-targeting framework requires the establishment of an inflation-target horizon, which is the average time it takes inflation to return to the target. Policy-makers have an interest in communicating this horizon, since it is likely to help anchor inflation expectations. This article focuses on the determination of the appropriate policy horizon by reporting on two recent Bank of Canada studies. The evidence suggests that the current target horizon of six to eight quarters remains appropriate. It is important to note that the duration of the optimal inflation-target horizon varies widely, depending on the combination of shocks to the economy. In rare cases when the financial accelerator is triggered by a persistent shock, such as an asset-price bubble, it may be appropriate to take a longer view of the inflation-target horizon.

Evaluating Linear and Non-Linear Time-Varying Forecast-Combination Methods

Staff Working Paper 2001-12 Fuchun Li, Greg Tkacz
This paper evaluates linear and non-linear forecast-combination methods. Among the non-linear methods, we propose a nonparametric kernel-regression weighting approach that allows maximum flexibility of the weighting parameters.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C53, E, E2, E27

Canada's Exchange Rate Regime and North American Economic Integration: The Role of Risk-Sharing Mechanisms

Staff Working Paper 1999-17 Zahir Antia, Ramdane Djoudad, Pierre St-Amant
Our contribution in this paper is threefold. First, we survey the empirical literature on consumption smoothing mechanisms of regional economic shocks. Second, building on the work of Asdrubali et al. (1996), we present evidence on the role played by various smoothing mechanisms for specific economic shocks affecting Canadian provinces. Third, we assess whether smoothing mechanisms […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33, F36, G, G1, G15
May 16, 2013

Explaining Canada’s Regional Migration Patterns

Understanding the factors that determine the migration of labour between regions is crucial for assessing the economy’s response to macroeconomic shocks and identifying policies that will encourage an efficient reallocation of labour. By examining the determinants of migration within Canada from 1991 to 2006, this article provides evidence that regional differences in employment rates and household incomes tend to increase labour migration, and that provincial borders and language differences are barriers to migration.

The Impact of Unemployment Insurance and Unsecured Credit on Business Cycles

Staff Working Paper 2023-22 Michael Irwin
This paper studies how unsecured consumer credit impacts the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) policies smooth aggregate consumption fluctuations over the business cycle. Using a general equilibrium real business cycle model, I find that unsecured credit amplifies the extent to which UI smooths cyclical consumption fluctuations.

Addressing Household Indebtedness: Monetary, Fiscal or Macroprudential Policy?

Staff Working Paper 2014-58 Sami Alpanda, Sarah Zubairy
In this paper, we build a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with housing and household debt, and compare the effectiveness of monetary policy, housing-related fiscal policy, and macroprudential regulations in reducing household indebtedness.

Evaluating Alternative Measures of the Real Effective Exchange Rate

Staff Working Paper 1998-20 Robert Lafrance, Patrick Osakwe, Pierre St-Amant
This paper discusses the merits and shortcomings of alternative price indices used in constructing real effective exchange rate indices and examines the effects of different weighting schemes. It also compares selected measures of the real effective exchange rate in terms of their ability to explain movements in Canadian net exports and real output. The paper […]
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