November 15, 2012 Monetary Policy and the Risk-Taking Channel: Insights from the Lending Behaviour of Banks Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2012 Teodora Paligorova, Jesus Sierra The financial crisis of 2007-09 and the subsequent extended period of historically low real interest rates have revived the question of whether economic agents are willing to take on more risk when interest rates remain low for a prolonged time period. This increased appetite for risk, which causes economic agents to search for investment assets and strategies that generate higher investment returns, has been called the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. Recent academic research on banks suggests that lending policies in times of low interest rates can be consistent with the existence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy in Europe, South America, the United States and Canada. Specifically, studies find that the terms of loans to risky borrowers become less stringent in periods of low interest rates. This risk-taking channel may amplify the effects of traditional transmission mechanisms, resulting in the creation of excessive credit. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21
Price-Level versus Inflation Targeting in a Small Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2001-24 Gabriel Srour This paper compares two types of monetary policy: price-level targeting and inflation targeting. It reviews recent arguments that favour price-level targeting, and examines how certain factors, such as the nature of the shocks affecting the economy and the degree to which agents are forward-looking, bear upon the arguments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
Financial Market Imperfection, Overinvestment, and Speculative Precaution Staff Working Paper 2004-27 Christian Calmès The author uses panel data to assess the sensitivity of investment to cash flow in non-financial firms, taking into account the role their financial health plays in investment decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): D, D9, D92, E, E2, E22, E4, E44, G, G3, G33
Modelling Mortgage Rate Changes with a Smooth Transition Error-Correction Model Staff Working Paper 2001-23 Ying Liu This paper uses a smooth transition error-correction model (STECM) to model the one-year and five-year mortgage rate changes. The model allows for a non-linear adjustment process of mortgage rates towards their long-run equilibrium. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C4, C49, E, E4, E47
Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices Staff Working Paper 2006-25 Greg Tkacz, Carolyn A. Wilkins The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E4
Real-financial Linkages through Loan Default and Bank Capital Staff Working Paper 2013-3 Tamon Takamura Many studies in macroeconomics argue that financial frictions do not amplify the impacts of real shocks. This finding is based on models without endogenous default on loans and bank capital. Using a model featuring endogenous interactions between firm default and bank capital, this paper revisits the propagation mechanisms of real and financial shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E6, E69
Central Bank Liquidity Facilities and Market Making Staff Working Paper 2022-9 David Cimon, Adrian Walton We create a theoretical model of central bank asset purchases. The model helps explain how, in a crisis, these purchases ease pressures on investment dealers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, L, L1, L10
Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies Staff Working Paper 2006-22 Anna Piretti, Charles St-Arnaud The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E3, E37
June 19, 2008 Capitalizing on the Commodity Boom: the Role of Monetary Policy Remarks Mark Carney Haskayne School of Business Calgary, Alberta We are experiencing a commodity super cycle. Throughout the current boom, the scale of price increases has been higher, and the range of affected commodities broader, than in previous upturns. Since 2002, grain and oilseed prices have more than doubled, base metals prices have tripled, and oil prices have quadrupled. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Inflation Changes, Yield Spreads, and Threshold Effects Staff Working Paper 2002-40 Greg Tkacz Using interest rate yield spreads to explain changes in inflation, we investigate whether such relationships can be modelled using two-regime threshold models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E31