Financial Market Imperfection, Overinvestment, and Speculative Precaution Staff Working Paper 2004-27 Christian Calmès The author uses panel data to assess the sensitivity of investment to cash flow in non-financial firms, taking into account the role their financial health plays in investment decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): D, D9, D92, E, E2, E22, E4, E44, G, G3, G33
Addressing Household Indebtedness: Monetary, Fiscal or Macroprudential Policy? Staff Working Paper 2014-58 Sami Alpanda, Sarah Zubairy In this paper, we build a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with housing and household debt, and compare the effectiveness of monetary policy, housing-related fiscal policy, and macroprudential regulations in reducing household indebtedness. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, R, R3, R38
The Impact of Unemployment Insurance and Unsecured Credit on Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2023-22 Michael Irwin This paper studies how unsecured consumer credit impacts the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) policies smooth aggregate consumption fluctuations over the business cycle. Using a general equilibrium real business cycle model, I find that unsecured credit amplifies the extent to which UI smooths cyclical consumption fluctuations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E32, E4, E44, E6, E62
The New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve: An Assessment of Competing Specifications for the United States Staff Working Paper 2004-31 David Dupuis Inflation forecasting is fundamental to monetary policy. In practice, however, economists are faced with competing goals: accuracy and theoretical consistency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
January 11, 2009 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2008-2009 Cover page Chargex The artefacts on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP Staff Working Paper 2006-26 Yi Zheng, James Rossiter The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C53
November 17, 2016 Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Jeannine Bailliu, Christopher Hajzler Growth has slowed in many emerging-market economies (EMEs) since the 2007–09 global financial crisis, reflecting both cyclical and structural factors. In this context, it will be in-creasingly important for EMEs to raise potential growth by maintaining steady progress on structural reforms. How do structural reforms generally support growth? What are the re-form priorities for EMEs over recent history and today? Finally, what will be the impact of planned structural reforms on potential output growth among the world’s larger EMEs? These are some of the questions considered by the authors. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Development economics, International topics, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E6, E61, E65, O, O1, O11, O4, O41
Canada's Exchange Rate Regime and North American Economic Integration: The Role of Risk-Sharing Mechanisms Staff Working Paper 1999-17 Zahir Antia, Ramdane Djoudad, Pierre St-Amant Our contribution in this paper is threefold. First, we survey the empirical literature on consumption smoothing mechanisms of regional economic shocks. Second, building on the work of Asdrubali et al. (1996), we present evidence on the role played by various smoothing mechanisms for specific economic shocks affecting Canadian provinces. Third, we assess whether smoothing mechanisms […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33, F36, G, G1, G15
A Forecasting Model for Inventory Investments in Canada Staff Working Paper 2004-39 Marwan Chacra, Maral Kichian The authors present an empirical model to forecast short-run inventory investment behaviour for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E2, E22, E6, E62
Affine Term-Structure Models: Theory and Implementation Staff Working Paper 2001-15 David Bolder Affine models describe the stylized time-series properties of the term structure of interest rates in a reasonable manner, they generalize relatively easily to higher dimensions, and a vast academic literature exists relating to their implementation. This combination of characteristics makes the affine class a natural introductory point for modelling interest rate dynamics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C5, G, G0