May 13, 2014 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 The five articles in this issue present research and analysis by Bank staff covering a variety of topics: the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves; the emergence of platform-based digital currencies; methods of forecasting the real price of oil; measures of uncertainty in monetary policy; and the recent performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Real-financial Linkages through Loan Default and Bank Capital Staff Working Paper 2013-3 Tamon Takamura Many studies in macroeconomics argue that financial frictions do not amplify the impacts of real shocks. This finding is based on models without endogenous default on loans and bank capital. Using a model featuring endogenous interactions between firm default and bank capital, this paper revisits the propagation mechanisms of real and financial shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E6, E69
Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting Staff Working Paper 2007-18 Marc-André Gosselin The inflation targeting (IT) regime is 17 years old. With practice of IT now in more than 21 countries, there is enough evidence gathered to take stock of the IT experience. In this paper, we analyze the inflation record of IT central banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
A Forecasting Model for Inventory Investments in Canada Staff Working Paper 2004-39 Marwan Chacra, Maral Kichian The authors present an empirical model to forecast short-run inventory investment behaviour for Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E2, E22, E6, E62
Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms? Staff Working Paper 2016-19 Sami Alpanda, Alexander Ueberfeldt Should monetary policy lean against housing market booms? We approach this question using a small-scale, regime-switching New Keynesian model, where housing market crashes arrive with a logit probability that depends on the level of household debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G0, G01
Addressing Household Indebtedness: Monetary, Fiscal or Macroprudential Policy? Staff Working Paper 2014-58 Sami Alpanda, Sarah Zubairy In this paper, we build a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with housing and household debt, and compare the effectiveness of monetary policy, housing-related fiscal policy, and macroprudential regulations in reducing household indebtedness. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, R, R3, R38
Market Valuation and Risk Assessment of Canadian Banks Staff Working Paper 2004-34 Ying Liu, Mingwei Yuan, Eli Papakirykos The authors apply the asset-valuation model developed by Rabinovitch (1989) to six publicly traded Canadian banks over the period 1982–2002. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G21
Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model Staff Working Paper 2006-42 Céline Gauthier, Fuchun Li The authors estimate a small monthly macroeconometric model (BEAM, for bonds, equity, and money) of the Canadian economy built around three cointegrating relationships linking financial and real variables over the 1975–2002 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters Staff Working Paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32
January 11, 2009 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2008-2009 Cover page Chargex The artefacts on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review