May 13, 2014 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 The five articles in this issue present research and analysis by Bank staff covering a variety of topics: the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves; the emergence of platform-based digital currencies; methods of forecasting the real price of oil; measures of uncertainty in monetary policy; and the recent performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
June 19, 2008 Capitalizing on the Commodity Boom: the Role of Monetary Policy Remarks Mark Carney Haskayne School of Business Calgary, Alberta We are experiencing a commodity super cycle. Throughout the current boom, the scale of price increases has been higher, and the range of affected commodities broader, than in previous upturns. Since 2002, grain and oilseed prices have more than doubled, base metals prices have tripled, and oil prices have quadrupled. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy Staff Working Paper 2012-40 Soojin Jo This paper investigates the effect of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity using a quarterly VAR with stochastic volatility in mean. Stochastic volatility allows oil price uncertainty to vary separately from changes in the level of oil prices, and thus the impact of oil price uncertainty can be examined in a more flexible yet tractable way. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada Technical Report No. 79 Pierre St-Amant, Simon van Norden In this paper, we discuss some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24
Canada's Exchange Rate Regime and North American Economic Integration: The Role of Risk-Sharing Mechanisms Staff Working Paper 1999-17 Zahir Antia, Ramdane Djoudad, Pierre St-Amant Our contribution in this paper is threefold. First, we survey the empirical literature on consumption smoothing mechanisms of regional economic shocks. Second, building on the work of Asdrubali et al. (1996), we present evidence on the role played by various smoothing mechanisms for specific economic shocks affecting Canadian provinces. Third, we assess whether smoothing mechanisms […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33, F36, G, G1, G15
Dynamic Factor Analysis for Measuring Money Staff Working Paper 2003-21 Paul Gilbert, Lise Pichette Technological innovations in the financial industry pose major problems for the measurement of monetary aggregates. The authors describe work on a new measure of money that has a more satisfactory means of identifying and removing the effects of financial innovations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary aggregates, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, C8, C82, E, E5, E51
Price-Level versus Inflation Targeting in a Small Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2001-24 Gabriel Srour This paper compares two types of monetary policy: price-level targeting and inflation targeting. It reviews recent arguments that favour price-level targeting, and examines how certain factors, such as the nature of the shocks affecting the economy and the degree to which agents are forward-looking, bear upon the arguments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
Are Counterparty Arrangements in Reinsurance a Threat to Financial Stability? Staff Working Paper 2016-39 Matt Davison, Darrell Leadbetter, Bin Lu, Jane Voll Interconnectedness among insurers and reinsurers at a global level is not well understood and may pose a significant risk to the sector, with implications for the macroeconomy. Models of the complex interactions among reinsurers and with other participants in the financial system and the real economy are at a very early stage of development. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G1, G10, G15, G18, G2, G22, G28
The Impact of Unemployment Insurance and Unsecured Credit on Business Cycles Staff Working Paper 2023-22 Michael Irwin This paper studies how unsecured consumer credit impacts the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) policies smooth aggregate consumption fluctuations over the business cycle. Using a general equilibrium real business cycle model, I find that unsecured credit amplifies the extent to which UI smooths cyclical consumption fluctuations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E32, E4, E44, E6, E62
Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices Staff Working Paper 2006-25 Greg Tkacz, Carolyn A. Wilkins The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E4