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3046 Results

Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two

Staff Working Paper 1998-6 Walter Engert, Scott Hendry
A central bank's main concern is the general direction of future inflation, and not transitory fluctuations of the inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight-quarter CPI-inflation rate. The primary objective is to improve the M1-based vector-error-correction model (VECM) developed by Hendry […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C5, E, E3, E4, E5

A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States

Staff Working Paper 1997-20 Iris Claus
A monetary authority with the primary objective of price stability has to distinguish between temporary price shocks and persistent shocks to the rate of inflation. A measure of underlying inflation, therefore, has an important role to play as a guideline for monetary policy.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

Estimating the Costs of Electronic Retail Payment Networks: A Cross-Country Meta Analysis

Staff Discussion Paper 2025-17 Cam Donohoe, Youming Liu
We explore how many electronic funds transfer (EFT) systems can viably coexist within a jurisdiction at efficient scale by estimating the cost curve of the average EFT. We estimate the marginal cost to be approximately $0.55 per transaction, and the fixed cost to be approximately $83 million per year.

Central Bank Performance under Inflation Targeting

Staff Working Paper 2007-18 Marc-André Gosselin
The inflation targeting (IT) regime is 17 years old. With practice of IT now in more than 21 countries, there is enough evidence gathered to take stock of the IT experience. In this paper, we analyze the inflation record of IT central banks.

Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-8 Lin Chen, Stéphanie Houle
We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages.
May 22, 2004

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Industrialized Countries

Economists' long-standing interest in the degree to which exchange rate movements are reflected in prices was rekindled in the 1970s by a combination of rising inflation and the adoption of more flexible exchange rate regimes in many industrialized countries. Specifically, there were concerns that a large currency depreciation could degenerate into an inflationary spiral. Such fears were curtailed in the 1980s and early 1990s as industrialized countries began to reduce and stabilize their inflation rates. The low-inflation period most industrialized countries entered approximately a decade ago coincided with significant exchange rate depreciations that had much smaller effects on consumer prices than expected. This led to a belief that the extent to which exchange rate movements are passed through to consumer prices has declined. In this article, the authors examine why pass-through could be incomplete and review empirical estimates to determine whether pass-through has indeed declined, suggesting possible reasons for this decline and discussing the implications for monetary policy.

Domestic versus External Borrowing and Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets

Staff Working Paper 2007-33 Garima Vasishtha
Domestic public debt issued by emerging markets has risen significantly relative to international debt in recent years. Some recent empirical evidence also suggests that sovereigns have defaulted differentially on debt held by domestic and external creditors.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, H, H2, H21, H6, H63
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