The Impact of Potential Retail Central Bank Digital Currency on the Canadian Financial System During a Severe Recession Staff analytical paper 2026-30 Sofia Priazhkina This policy note examines how a non-interest-bearing retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) could affect the financial stability of Canada’s systemically important banks during a severe recession. Stress test results show that the banks remain resilient, maintaining key regulatory ratios even under high CBDC demand. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E58, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Monetary Policy in a Volatile World: ToTEM Simulations Staff analytical paper 2026-27 Edward Booth, Edouard Djeutem, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Fanny McKellips, Yang Zhang Using simulations of the Bank of Canada’s projection model, we assess inflation risks from greater supply-shock volatility and show that monetary policy faces sharper trade-offs, as stabilizing inflation increasingly comes at the cost of weaker real activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
COVID-19 and Financial Stability: Practice Ahead of Theory Staff discussion paper 2022-18 Jing Yang, Hélène Desgagnés, Grzegorz Halaj, Yaz Terajima The COVID-19 pandemic uncovered policy challenges related to the economic measures that were taken to support the economy. Two years later, we attempt to identify the broader impact of these measures and research that needs to follow. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, E6, E61, G, G2, G21, H, H3, H8, H84 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Are Counterparty Arrangements in Reinsurance a Threat to Financial Stability? Staff working paper 2016-39 Matt Davison, Darrell Leadbetter, Bin Lu, Jane Voll Interconnectedness among insurers and reinsurers at a global level is not well understood and may pose a significant risk to the sector, with implications for the macroeconomy. Models of the complex interactions among reinsurers and with other participants in the financial system and the real economy are at a very early stage of development. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G1, G10, G15, G18, G2, G22, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
On the Value of Virtual Currencies Staff working paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, F, F3, F31, G, G1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
August 19, 2010 Should Monetary Policy Be Used to Counteract Financial Imbalances? Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2010 Jean Boivin, Césaire Meh, Timothy Lane The authors examine whether monetary policy should and could do more to lean against financial imbalances (such as those associated with asset-price bubbles or unsustainable credit expansion) as they are building up, or whether its role should be limited to cleaning up the economic consequences as the imbalances unwind. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Bending the Curves: Wages and Inflation Staff analytical note 2018-15 Dany Brouillette, Madigan Dockrill, Helen Lao, Laurence Savoie-Chabot As economic slack continues to be absorbed and the labour market tightens, wage growth and inflation could increase faster than expected, which would suggest convexity in their Phillips curves. This note investigates whether there is convexity in the Phillips curves for Canadian wage growth and inflation by testing different empirical approaches over the post-inflation-targeting period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
October 4, 2012 A Measure of Work Remarks Tiff Macklem Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses labour markets in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Data Externalities, Market Power, and the Optimal Design of Central Bank Digital Currencies Staff working paper 2026-21 Yuteng Cheng, Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang This paper studies how a central bank should design a CBDC when private payment providers collect and monetize transaction data. It characterizes the optimal CBDC’s pricing and data policy, and shows how its effects on private payment use and total data depend on market power and data externalities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, L, L1, L14 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
February 1, 2012 Income Trusts: Understanding the Issues Financial System Review - December 2003 Michael R. King Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles