Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries Staff working paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation Staff working paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
February 23, 2021 Canada’s labour market: rebound, recuperation and restructuring Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Edmonton Chamber of Commerce and Calgary Chamber of Commerce Calgary, Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the COVID-19 pandemic and major economic forces are affecting the labour market, and the need for all groups to benefits from the recovery. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Funds management, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
Price Caps in Canadian Bond Borrowing Markets Staff analytical note 2019-2 Léanne Berger-Soucy, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Adrian Walton Price controls, or caps, can lead to shortages, as 1970’s gasoline price controls illustrate. One million trades show that the market for borrowing bonds in Canada has an implicit price cap: traders are willing to pay no more than the overnight interest rate to borrow a bond. This suggests the probability of a shortage increases when interest rates are very low. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence Against a “Greasing Effect” Staff working paper 2017-31 Joel Wagner The existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) has often been used to justify a positive inflation target. It is traditionally assumed that positive inflation could “grease the wheels” of the labour market by putting downward pressure on real wages, easing labour market adjustments during a recession. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Prima: The Bank of Canada’s New Projection and Policy-Analysis Model—An Overview Staff analytical paper 2026-47 Donald Coletti, Martin Kuncl, Martin Harding, Dmitry Matveev, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang Prima is the Bank of Canada’s new model for projection and policy analysis. It builds on the economic foundations of earlier Bank models, adding detail on how sectoral pressures affect production costs and their pass-through to consumer prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, C8, C82, E, E3, E30, E31, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Non-Bank Dealing and Liquidity Bifurcation in Fixed-Income Markets Staff working paper 2025-2 Michael Brolley, David Cimon We model non-bank entry into fixed-income markets and state-dependent liquidity. Non-bank financial institutions improve liquidity more during normal times than in stress. Banks may become less reliable to marginal clients, exacerbating the difference in liquidity between normal and stressed times. Central bank lending during stress may limit this harmful division. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, G21, G23, L, L1, L10, L13, L14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Extreme Downside Risk in Asset Returns Staff working paper 2019-46 Lerby Ergun Financial markets can experience sudden and extreme downward movements. Investors are highly concerned about the performance of their assets in such scenarios. Some assets perform badly in a downturn in the market; others have milder reactions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G1, G11, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services Staff discussion paper 2023-27 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, L, L1, L11 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Broker Routing Decisions in Limit Order Markets Staff working paper 2016-50 David Cimon The primary focus of this paper is to study conflict of interest in the brokerage market. Brokers face a conflict of interest when the commissions they receive from investors differ from the costs imposed by different trading venues. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G24, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure