November 11, 2008 The Role of Dealers in Providing Interday Liquidity in the Canadian-Dollar Market Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2008-2009 Chris D'Souza Access to information about the future direction of the exchange rate can be extremely valuable in the foreign exchange market. Evidence presented in this article suggests that Canadian dealers are more likely to provide interday liquidity to foreign, rather than Canadian, financial customers, since foreign financial flows can be more informative about future movements in the exchange rate. The author reveals a statistical relationship between the supply of liquidity provided by non-financial firms and that provided by dealing institutions across time, and across markets, and suggests that the relationship between the positions of commercial clients and market-makers, and the role played by dealers in interday liquidity provision, has been understated in the market microstructure literature. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy Staff discussion paper 2016-20 Stephen S. Poloz In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, F, F1, F4, F41, F6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment Staff discussion paper 2020-12 James Bootsma, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Christopher Hajzler, Argyn Toktamyssov This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach Staff working paper 2016-21 Fuchun Li, Hongyu Xiao We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
June 21, 2009 Procyclicality and Compensation Financial System Review - June 2009 Étienne Bordeleau, Walter Engert Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023 Staff analytical note 2023-5 Salma Ahmed, Aviel Avshalumov, Tania Chaar, Eshini Ekanayake, Helen Lao, Louis Poirier, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Argyn Toktamyssov, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Can the Common-Factor Hypothesis Explain the Observed Housing Wealth Effect? Staff working paper 2016-62 Narayan Bulusu, Jefferson Duarte, Carles Vergara-Alert The common-factor hypothesis is one possible explanation for the housing wealth effect. Under this hypothesis, house price appreciation is related to changes in consumption as long as the available proxies for the common driver of housing and non-housing demand are noisy and housing supply is not perfectly elastic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
November 13, 2015 Innovation, Central-Bank Style Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Rotman School of Management and Munk School of Global Affairs Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses how the Bank is tackling the most important strategic challenges facing central banks today and how innovative thinking is critical to its success. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach Staff working paper 2020-40 Christopher S. Sutherland How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
November 24, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2004 Cover page Bus Transportation Tokens and Tickets The pieces illustrated on the cover range in size from 12 mm to 38 mm in diameter or width. They form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review