What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks Staff working paper 2016-25 Laurent Ferrara, Pierre Guérin This paper evaluates the effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low-frequency macroeconomic variables that are representative of the U.S. economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low-frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allows us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Breaking Down the US Employment Multiplier Using Micro-Level Data Staff working paper 2025-8 Edoardo Briganti, Holt Dwyer, Ricardo Duque Gabriel, Victor Sellemi Using newly matched data on US defense contracts and restricted administrative employment data, we show that the employment effects of defense procurement are costly, concentrated and slow to diffuse. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, H, H5, H57, J, J2, J21 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
January 31, 2012 International Cross-Listing and the Bonding Hypothesis Financial System Review - June 2004 Michael R. King, Dan Segal Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
December 14, 2007 The Costs of Inflation in New Keynesian Models Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2007-2008 Steve Ambler Ambler describes three new channels through which inflation affects economic welfare in New Keynesian models. These channels were absent from traditional analyses and may have caused researchers to underestimate the costs associated with variable inflation, even at relatively low levels of inflation. The article concludes with a preliminary assessment of the quantitative importance of the new channels and their significance for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Risk and State-Dependent Financial Frictions Staff working paper 2022-37 Martin Harding, Rafael Wouters Using a nonlinear New Keynesian model with a financial accelerator, we show that financial frictions generate large state-dependent amplification effects. Shocks propagate more strongly in periods of financial stress. We propose an endogenous regime-switching DSGE framework for efficient estimation and improved model fit. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models
Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach Staff working paper 2016-21 Fuchun Li, Hongyu Xiao We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Blockchain-Based Settlement for Asset Trading Staff working paper 2018-45 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl Can securities be settled on a blockchain and, if so, what are the gains relative to existing settlement systems? We consider a blockchain that ensures delivery versus payment by linking transfers of assets with payments and operates using a proof-of-work protocol. The main benefit of a blockchain is faster and more flexible settlement, whereas the challenge is to avoid settlement fails when participants fork the chain to get rid of trading losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, H, H4, P, P4, P43 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Monetary Policy in a Volatile World: ToTEM Simulations Staff analytical paper 2026-27 Edward Booth, Edouard Djeutem, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Fanny McKellips, Yang Zhang Using simulations of the Bank of Canada’s projection model, we assess inflation risks from greater supply-shock volatility and show that monetary policy faces sharper trade-offs, as stabilizing inflation increasingly comes at the cost of weaker real activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach Staff working paper 2020-40 Christopher S. Sutherland How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Average is Good Enough: Average-inflation Targeting and the ELB Staff working paper 2020-31 Robert Amano, Stefano Gnocchi, Sylvain Leduc, Joel Wagner The Great Recession and current pandemic have focused attention on the constraint on nominal interest rates from the effective lower bound. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission