February 1, 2012 Valuation of Canadian- versus U.S.-Listed Equities: Is There a Discount? Financial System Review - December 2003 Michael R. King, Dan Segal Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Bending the Curves: Wages and Inflation Staff analytical note 2018-15 Dany Brouillette, Madigan Dockrill, Helen Lao, Laurence Savoie-Chabot As economic slack continues to be absorbed and the labour market tightens, wage growth and inflation could increase faster than expected, which would suggest convexity in their Phillips curves. This note investigates whether there is convexity in the Phillips curves for Canadian wage growth and inflation by testing different empirical approaches over the post-inflation-targeting period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, J, J3 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
October 4, 2012 A Measure of Work Remarks Tiff Macklem Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses labour markets in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Incentive Compatibility on the Blockchain Staff working paper 2018-34 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl A blockchain is a digital ledger that keeps track of a record of ownership without the need for a designated party to update and enforce changes to the record. The updating of the ledger is done directly by the users of the blockchain and is traditionally governed by a proof-of-work (PoW) protocol. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, H, H4, P, P4, P43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
The Impact of Potential Retail Central Bank Digital Currency on the Canadian Financial System During a Severe Recession Staff analytical paper 2026-30 Sofia Priazhkina This policy note examines how a non-interest-bearing retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) could affect the financial stability of Canada’s systemically important banks during a severe recession. Stress test results show that the banks remain resilient, maintaining key regulatory ratios even under high CBDC demand. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E58, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update Staff analytical note 2021-6 Dany Brouillette, Guyllaume Faucher, Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Youngmin Park We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Financial Inclusion—What’s it Worth? Staff working paper 2016-30 Miguel Ampudia, Michael Ehrmann The paper studies the determinants of being unbanked in the euro area and the United States as well as the effects of being unbanked on wealth accumulation. Based on household-level data from The Eurosystem Household Finance and Consumption Survey and the U.S. Survey of Consumer Finances, it first documents that there are, respectively, 3.6 per cent and 7.5 per cent of unbanked households in the two economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases Staff working paper 2021-54 Xu Zhang I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy Staff discussion paper 2016-20 Stephen S. Poloz In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, F, F1, F4, F41, F6 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
May 13, 2014 The Canadian Dollar as a Reserve Currency Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Lukasz Pomorski, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Eric Wolfe This article provides an overview of the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves. Based on International Monetary Fund data and on internal Bank of Canada analysis, we estimate that the total reserve holdings of Canadian-dollar assets increased from negligible levels before 2008 to around US$200 billion in the third quarter of 2013. We discuss the determinants of this increase, as well as its potential impact on Canadian debt markets, for example, lower yields and therefore reduced financing costs for the Government of Canada, and the possible negative impact on market liquidity. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12