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3045 Results

Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach

Staff Working Paper 1996-1 Robert Vigfusson
Since the early 1980s, models based on economic fundamentals have been poor at explaining the movements in the exchange rate (Messe 1990). In response to this problem, Frankel and Froot (1988) developed a model that uses two approaches to forecast the exchange rate: the fundamentalist approach, which bases the forecast on economic fundamentals, and the chartist approach, which bases the forecast on the past behaviour of the exchange rate.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, G, G1, G12

Predetermined Prices and the Persistent Effects of Money on Output

Staff Working Paper 2001-13 Michael Devereux, James Yetman
This paper illustrates a model of predetermined pricing, where firms set a fixed schedule of nominal prices at the time of price readjustment, based on the work of Fischer (1977). This type of price-setting specification cannot produce any excess persistence in a fixed-duration model of staggered prices, but we show that with a probabilistic model of price adjustment, as in Calvo (1983), a predetermined pricing specification can produce excess persistence.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30

AI Agents for Cash Management in Payment Systems

Staff Working Paper 2025-35 Iñaki Aldasoro, Ajit Desai
Can artificial intelligence (AI) think and act like a cash manager? In this paper we explore how generative AI agents can help manage liquidity, prioritize payments and optimize efficiency in real-time gross settlement systems.

What Drives Exchange Rates? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Dollar Bilateral Exchange Rates

We use a novel approach to identify economic developments that drive exchange rates in the long run. Using a panel of six quarterly U.S. bilateral real exchange rates – Australia, Canada, the euro, Japan, New Zealand and the United Kingdom – over the 1980-2007 period, a dynamic factor model points to two common factors.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31

Estimating One-Factor Models of Short-Term Interest Rates

Staff Working Paper 1999-18 Des Mc Manus, David Watt
There currently exists in the literature several continuous-time one-factor models for short-term interest rates. This paper considers a wide range of these models that are nested into one general model. These models are approximated using both a discrete-time model and a model that accounts for aggregation effects over time, and are estimated by both the […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, G, G1, G10

Stability versus Flexibility: The Role of Temporary Employment in Labour Adjustment

Staff Working Paper 2010-27 Shutao Cao, Danny Leung
In Canada, temporary workers account for 14 per cent of jobs in the non-farm business sector, are present in a range of industries, and account for 40 per cent of the total job reallocation. Yet most models of job reallocation abstract from temporary workers.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, J, J3, J32
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