BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: Appendix and References Technical report No. 125 David Beers, Obiageri Ndukwe, Joe Berry Since 2014, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. The database is posted on the BoC’s website and is updated annually in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
Assessing the Impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchases Staff discussion paper 2024-5 Chinara Azizova, Jonathan Witmer, Xu Zhang In March 2020, the Bank of Canada implemented the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, eventually purchasing approximately $340 billion of government bonds. In this paper, we analyze the impact of this program on financial market prices and yields as well as on GDP and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting Staff working paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database Revisited: What’s New in 2018? Staff working paper 2018-30 David Beers, Jamshid Mavalwalla Until recently, there have been few efforts to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada’s Credit Rating Assessment Group (CRAG) has developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults posted on the Bank of Canada’s website that now is updated in partnership with the Bank of England. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
COVID-19 and Financial Stability: Practice Ahead of Theory Staff discussion paper 2022-18 Jing Yang, Hélène Desgagnés, Grzegorz Halaj, Yaz Terajima The COVID-19 pandemic uncovered policy challenges related to the economic measures that were taken to support the economy. Two years later, we attempt to identify the broader impact of these measures and research that needs to follow. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, E6, E61, G, G2, G21, H, H3, H8, H84 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
August 19, 2010 Should Monetary Policy Be Used to Counteract Financial Imbalances? Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2010 Jean Boivin, Césaire Meh, Timothy Lane The authors examine whether monetary policy should and could do more to lean against financial imbalances (such as those associated with asset-price bubbles or unsustainable credit expansion) as they are building up, or whether its role should be limited to cleaning up the economic consequences as the imbalances unwind. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update Staff analytical note 2021-6 Dany Brouillette, Guyllaume Faucher, Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Youngmin Park We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Options Decimalization Staff working paper 2016-57 Faith Chin, Corey Garriott We document the outcome of an options decimalization pilot on Canada’s derivatives exchange. Decimalization improves measures of liquidity and price efficiency. The impact differs by the moneyness of an option and is greatest for out-of-the-money options. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1, L10 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
February 1, 2012 Valuation of Canadian- versus U.S.-Listed Equities: Is There a Discount? Financial System Review - December 2003 Michael R. King, Dan Segal Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
May 13, 2014 The Canadian Dollar as a Reserve Currency Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Lukasz Pomorski, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Eric Wolfe This article provides an overview of the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves. Based on International Monetary Fund data and on internal Bank of Canada analysis, we estimate that the total reserve holdings of Canadian-dollar assets increased from negligible levels before 2008 to around US$200 billion in the third quarter of 2013. We discuss the determinants of this increase, as well as its potential impact on Canadian debt markets, for example, lower yields and therefore reduced financing costs for the Government of Canada, and the possible negative impact on market liquidity. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12