Interpreting Volatility Shocks as Preference Shocks Staff working paper 2016-45 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the relationship between volatility shocks and preference shocks in an analytically tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences and stochastic volatility. I show that there exists an explicit mapping between volatility shocks and preference shocks, and a rise in volatility generates the same impulse responses of macroeconomic aggregates as a negative preference shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations Staff working paper 2021-33 Sushant Acharya, Jess Benhabib, Zhen Huo We show that changes in sentiment that aren’t related to fundamentals can drive persistent macroeconomic fluctuations even when all economic agents are rational. Changes in sentiment can also affect how fundamental shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E32, F, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Predicting the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency: A Structural Analysis with Survey Data Staff working paper 2021-65 Jiaqi Li How much of a CBDC would Canadian households want to hold, and what design features of a CBDC would they care about? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
The Positive Case for a CBDC Staff discussion paper 2021-11 Andrew Usher, Edona Reshidi, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Scott Hendry We discuss the competition and innovation arguments for issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). A CBDC could be an effective competition policy tool for payments. A CBDC could also support the vibrancy of the digital economy. It could help solve market failures and foster competition and innovation in new digital payments markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, L, L4, L5 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Noisy Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2018-23 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Luca Gambetti We introduce limited information in monetary policy. Agents receive signals from the central bank revealing new information (“news") about the future evolution of the policy rate before changes in the rate actually take place. However, the signal is disturbed by noise. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
January 11, 2010 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2009-2010 Causes and consequences of declining inflation persistence in Canada; the evolution of capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs) and the need for EMEs to implement policies that support capital flows; making bank notes accessible for Canadians living with blindness or low vision, sharing assessments of the suite of accessibility features on the current series of bank notes and plans for the next series. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities Staff analytical note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
What Are the Macroeconomic Effects of High-Frequency Uncertainty Shocks Staff working paper 2016-25 Laurent Ferrara, Pierre Guérin This paper evaluates the effects of high-frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low-frequency macroeconomic variables that are representative of the U.S. economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low-frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allows us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Assessing the Impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchases Staff discussion paper 2024-5 Chinara Azizova, Jonathan Witmer, Xu Zhang In March 2020, the Bank of Canada implemented the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, eventually purchasing approximately $340 billion of government bonds. In this paper, we analyze the impact of this program on financial market prices and yields as well as on GDP and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Monetary Policy in a Volatile World: ToTEM Simulations Staff analytical paper 2026-27 Edward Booth, Edouard Djeutem, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Fanny McKellips, Yang Zhang Using simulations of the Bank of Canada’s projection model, we assess inflation risks from greater supply-shock volatility and show that monetary policy faces sharper trade-offs, as stabilizing inflation increasingly comes at the cost of weaker real activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission