September 18, 2008 Measuring Inflation: Methodology and Misconceptions Remarks John Murray Certified General Accountants of Ontario Toronto, Ontario These past few months have been busy for central bankers, to say the least, and the past few days are certainly no exception. While developments on Wall Street have garnered much attention, the cost of living has also been an issue for us all, whether we're buying gas at the pumps, booking an airline ticket, or just picking up a loaf of bread at the grocery store. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
How do Canadians perceive access to cash? Staff analytical note 2024-24 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao This paper introduces a subjective measure of cash accessibility in Canada, complementing existing distance-based metrics developed by Chen, O’Habib and Xiao (2023). Analyzing data from the 2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey, this study explores how Canadians perceive their ease of accessing cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): J, J1, J15, O, O1, R, R5, R51 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes
January 11, 2010 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2009-2010 Causes and consequences of declining inflation persistence in Canada; the evolution of capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs) and the need for EMEs to implement policies that support capital flows; making bank notes accessible for Canadians living with blindness or low vision, sharing assessments of the suite of accessibility features on the current series of bank notes and plans for the next series. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
November 13, 2015 Innovation, Central-Bank Style Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Rotman School of Management and Munk School of Global Affairs Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses how the Bank is tackling the most important strategic challenges facing central banks today and how innovative thinking is critical to its success. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Asymmetric Risks to the Economic Outlook Arising from Financial System Vulnerabilities Staff analytical note 2018-6 Thibaut Duprey When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C11, C15, E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E37, E4, E44, E47, E5, E58, E6, E66, G, G0, G01, G1, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting Staff working paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
October 18, 2005 What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates? Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Jeannine Bailliu, Michael R. King Understanding what causes the exchange rate to move has been on ongoing challenge for economists. Despite extensive research, traditional macro models of exchange rate determination—with the exception of the Bank of Canada's exchange rate equation—have typically not fared well, motivating economists to explore new ways to model exchange rate movements that incorporate more complex and realistic settings. Within the context of the sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004, Bailliu and King review the macroeconomic models of exchange rates, as well as the micro-structure studies that highlight the importance of trading mechanisms, information asymmetry, and investor heterogeneity for explaining short-term dynamics in exchange rates. In addition to summarizing the current state of knowledge, they highlight recent advances and identify promising alternative approaches. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices Staff discussion paper 2017-12 Rose Cunningham, Min Jae Kim, Christian Friedrich, Kristina Hess In this paper, we analyze the presence of time variation in the pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices for 24 advanced economies over the period 1995–2015. In line with earlier studies in the literature, we find substantial heterogeneity in the level of exchange rate pass-through across countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F3, F31, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Predicting the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency: A Structural Analysis with Survey Data Staff working paper 2021-65 Jiaqi Li How much of a CBDC would Canadian households want to hold, and what design features of a CBDC would they care about? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments