How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts? Staff Working Paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58
May 22, 2004 Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Industrialized Countries Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2004 Jeannine Bailliu, Hafedh Bouakez Economists' long-standing interest in the degree to which exchange rate movements are reflected in prices was rekindled in the 1970s by a combination of rising inflation and the adoption of more flexible exchange rate regimes in many industrialized countries. Specifically, there were concerns that a large currency depreciation could degenerate into an inflationary spiral. Such fears were curtailed in the 1980s and early 1990s as industrialized countries began to reduce and stabilize their inflation rates. The low-inflation period most industrialized countries entered approximately a decade ago coincided with significant exchange rate depreciations that had much smaller effects on consumer prices than expected. This led to a belief that the extent to which exchange rate movements are passed through to consumer prices has declined. In this article, the authors examine why pass-through could be incomplete and review empirical estimates to determine whether pass-through has indeed declined, suggesting possible reasons for this decline and discussing the implications for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework
December 21, 2006 Credit in a Tiered Payments System Financial System Review - December 2006 Alexandra Lai, Nikil Chande, Sean O'Connor Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Labour Market Adjustments to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries Staff Working Paper 2005-14 Danny Leung, Terence Yuen The authors provide some of the first empirical evidence on labour market adjustments to exchange rate movements in Canadian manufacturing industries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, F, F4
August 16, 2001 Innovation and Competition in Canadian Equity Markets Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2001 Serge Boisvert, Charles Gaa Innovations in communications and information technology and the related globalization of financial markets have created the potential for important changes to the structure of Canadian equity markets. Established marketplaces can now compete more effectively on an inter-regional and international basis. At the same time, reduced costs have lowered the barriers to entry faced by new competitors known as alternative trading systems (ATSs). In response to this heightened competition, established Canadian stock exchanges have taken measures to improve market quality. While regulators see innovation as positive for the development of Canadian markets, there is some concern that market liquidity may be fragmented in the short run. The Canadian Securities Administrators have proposed a framework that attempts to address this issue and that would allow ATSs to compete with traditional exchanges for the first time. The authors provide an overview of the Canadian equity market and its structure, focusing on these recent developments. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial markets
Inventories and Real Rigidities in New Keynesian Business Cycle Models Staff Working Paper 2009-9 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Virgiliu Midrigan Kryvtsov and Midrigan (2008) study the behavior of inventories in an economy with menu costs, fixed ordering costs and the possibility of stock-outs. This paper extends their analysis to a richer setting that is capable of more closely accounting for the dynamics of the US business cycle. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F1, F12
September 11, 2009 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2009 Bank of Canada liquidity actions in response to the financial market turmoil; understanding corporate bond spreads using credit default swaps; review of the conflicts of interest between participants in the securitization process highlighting the most recent policy measures and potential solutions for ameliorating these agency issues. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
August 19, 2010 Monetary Policy and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2010 Robert Amano, Malik Shukayev The recent financial crisis and global economic slowdown have renewed interest in monetary policy options when the policy interest rate is at or near zero. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
Modelling Payments Systems: A Review of the Literature Staff Working Paper 2007-28 Jonathan Chiu, Alexandra Lai Payments systems play a fundamental role in an economy by providing the mechanisms through which payments arising from transactions can be settled. The existing literature on the economics of payments systems is large but loosely organized, in that each model uses a distinct set-up and sometimes a distinct equilibrium concept. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G21