May 13, 2014 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 The five articles in this issue present research and analysis by Bank staff covering a variety of topics: the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves; the emergence of platform-based digital currencies; methods of forecasting the real price of oil; measures of uncertainty in monetary policy; and the recent performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages Staff discussion paper 2023-8 Lin Chen, Stéphanie Houle We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C82, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
March 22, 2018 Financial Stability: Taking Care of Unfinished Business Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Rotman School of Management conference Toronto, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses three areas in which work remains to be done to improve financial stability. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Currency, Digital currency, Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economic models, Inflation targeting framework
May 17, 2012 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2012 This issue features a summary of the Bank’s annual conference, which took place in November 2011 and dealt with payments systems, and two articles that present research by Bank staff on global current account imbalances and macrofinancial risk assessment. The fourth article in this issue reviews the recent experience with inflation targeting. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Effects of macroprudential policy announcements on perceptions of systemic risks Staff analytical note 2025-4 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Ruhani Walia We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting Staff working paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
September 14, 2016 (S)low for Long and Financial Stability Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum City Lecture London, United Kingdom Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the financial stability risks associated with slow growth and low interest rates, and explores strategies to mitigate them. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth
The Positive Case for a CBDC Staff discussion paper 2021-11 Andrew Usher, Edona Reshidi, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Scott Hendry We discuss the competition and innovation arguments for issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). A CBDC could be an effective competition policy tool for payments. A CBDC could also support the vibrancy of the digital economy. It could help solve market failures and foster competition and innovation in new digital payments markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, L, L4, L5 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Predicting the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency: A Structural Analysis with Survey Data Staff working paper 2021-65 Jiaqi Li How much of a CBDC would Canadian households want to hold, and what design features of a CBDC would they care about? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
June 25, 2005 Changes in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Monetary Aggregates Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Tracy Chan, Ramdane Djoudad, Jackson Loi Although many countries have abandoned monetary targeting in recent decades, monetary aggregates are still useful indicators of future economic activity. Past research has shown that, compared with other monetary aggregates and expressed in real terms, net M1 and gross M1 have traditionally provided superior leading information for output growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles