Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation Staff working paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Quantitative Easing and Long‐Term Yields in Small Open Economies Staff working paper 2017-26 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Maral Shamloo We compare the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs with those implemented by the Bank of England and the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank’s reserve expansion program. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
December 21, 2008 Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drove the Compression in Emerging- Market Spreads? Financial System Review - December 2008 Philipp Maier, Garima Vasishtha Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Extraordinary Forward Guidance in Canada During the Pandemic Staff analytical paper 2026-1 Christopher S. Sutherland We consider two trade-offs inherent to extraordinary forward guidance (EFG): potency versus flexibility, and the credibility of forward guidance versus the credibility of inflation targeting. We argue that the form of EFG used by the Bank of Canada during the COVID‑19 pandemic balanced both trade-offs relatively well. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Estimating the Appropriate Quantity of Settlement Balances in a Floor System Staff discussion paper 2023-26 Narayan Bulusu, Matthew McNeely, Kaetlynd McRae, Jonathan Witmer This paper presents two complementary approaches to estimating the appropriate quantity of settlement balances needed to effectively operate monetary policy under a floor system in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting Staff working paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
February 25, 2020 Contingency planning for a central bank digital currency This background note explains the Bank’s official position on CBDC. It outlines the public policy, design, technology and risk management issues the Bank is considering as it builds its capacity to issue a CBDC in case it is needed in the future. Content Type(s): Background materials
Broker Routing Decisions in Limit Order Markets Staff working paper 2016-50 David Cimon The primary focus of this paper is to study conflict of interest in the brokerage market. Brokers face a conflict of interest when the commissions they receive from investors differ from the costs imposed by different trading venues. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G24, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
August 27, 2007 The Bank of Canada's Research Agenda and the Future of Inflation Targeting Remarks Pierre Duguay Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario The last few weeks have been a time of turbulence in financial markets. In times such as these, it is common for people to focus on day-by-day or even hour-by-hour events, and to lose sight of the future. But tonight, I want to focus on the future; specifically, the future of inflation targeting in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks