Extraordinary Forward Guidance in Canada During the Pandemic Staff analytical paper 2026-1 Christopher S. Sutherland We consider two trade-offs inherent to extraordinary forward guidance (EFG): potency versus flexibility, and the credibility of forward guidance versus the credibility of inflation targeting. We argue that the form of EFG used by the Bank of Canada during the COVID‑19 pandemic balanced both trade-offs relatively well. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
June 21, 2006 Financial System Review - June 2006 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
December 23, 2005 Financial System Review - December 2005 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Safe Payments Staff working paper 2020-53 Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang, Yu Zhu In a cashless economy, would the private sector invest in the optimal level of safety in a deposit-based payment system? In general, because of externalities, the answer is no. While the private sector could over- or under-invest in safety, the government can use taxes or subsidies to correct private incentives. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50, G, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Natural disasters and inflation in Canada Staff analytical note 2025-8 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes How do storms, floods and wildfires affect consumer prices? In the short term, natural disasters can significantly increase volatility in Canada-wide inflation. Over the long term, natural disasters influence inflation in shelter prices, especially when provincial output is already weak relative to trend. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Climate change
August 19, 2010 Conference Summary: New Frontiers in Monetary Policy Design Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2010 Robert Amano, Kevin Devereux, Rhys R. Mendes Although the current inflation-targeting regime has served Canadians well, sound public policy demands the continuous exploration of possible improvements in the monetary policy framework. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada Staff discussion paper 2024-7 Stefano Gnocchi, Fanny McKellips, Rodrigo Sekkel, Laure Simon, Yinxi Xie, Yang Zhang We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
August 18, 2011 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 This special issue, “Real-Financial Linkages,” examines the Bank’s research using theoretical and empirical models to improve its understanding of the linkages between financial and macroeconomic developments in the wake of the recent global financial crisis. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Overlooking the online world: Does mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the productivity slowdown? Staff analytical note 2021-10 Alejandra Bellatin, Stéphanie Houle Since the mid-2000s, labour productivity has slowed down in Canada despite enormous technological advances that were expected to improve it. This note investigates whether mismeasurement of the digital economy can explain this paradox. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, L, L8, L86, O, O3, O33, O4, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Is anyone surprised? The high-frequency impact of US and domestic macroeconomic data announcements on Canadian asset prices Staff analytical note 2025-10 Blake DeBruin Martos, Rodrigo Sekkel, Henry Stern, Xu Zhang Using almost two decades of detailed high-frequency data, we show how Canadian interest rates, the CAD/USD spot exchange rate, and stock market returns react to both US and domestic macro announcements. We find that Canadian macroeconomic announcements invoke greater responses in short-term yields, whereas US macroeconomic announcements play an increasingly important role in the yield movements of longer-term assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting