Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation Staff working paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Effects of macroprudential policy announcements on perceptions of systemic risks Staff analytical note 2025-4 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Ruhani Walia We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
April 14, 2007 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2007 Cover page Gas Cards All gas cards pictured here are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Quantitative Easing and Long‐Term Yields in Small Open Economies Staff working paper 2017-26 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Maral Shamloo We compare the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs with those implemented by the Bank of England and the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank’s reserve expansion program. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
June 21, 2006 Financial System Review - June 2006 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada Staff discussion paper 2024-7 Stefano Gnocchi, Fanny McKellips, Rodrigo Sekkel, Laure Simon, Yinxi Xie, Yang Zhang We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution Staff working paper 2019-48 Edouard Djeutem, Shaofeng Xu This paper studies the implications of model uncertainty for wealth distribution in a tractable general equilibrium model with a borrowing constraint and robustness à la Hansen and Sargent (2008). Households confront model uncertainty about the process driving the return of the risky asset, and they choose robust policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, E, E2 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Is anyone surprised? The high-frequency impact of US and domestic macroeconomic data announcements on Canadian asset prices Staff analytical note 2025-10 Blake DeBruin Martos, Rodrigo Sekkel, Henry Stern, Xu Zhang Using almost two decades of detailed high-frequency data, we show how Canadian interest rates, the CAD/USD spot exchange rate, and stock market returns react to both US and domestic macro announcements. We find that Canadian macroeconomic announcements invoke greater responses in short-term yields, whereas US macroeconomic announcements play an increasingly important role in the yield movements of longer-term assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Overlooking the online world: Does mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the productivity slowdown? Staff analytical note 2021-10 Alejandra Bellatin, Stéphanie Houle Since the mid-2000s, labour productivity has slowed down in Canada despite enormous technological advances that were expected to improve it. This note investigates whether mismeasurement of the digital economy can explain this paradox. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E01, L, L8, L86, O, O3, O33, O4, O5, O51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
February 24, 2012 A Monetary Policy Framework for All Seasons Remarks Mark Carney U.S. Monetary Policy Forum New York, New York Governor Mark Carney reviews the advantages of Canada’s flexible inflation-targeting regime. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks