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May 16, 2013

Explaining Canada’s Regional Migration Patterns

Understanding the factors that determine the migration of labour between regions is crucial for assessing the economy’s response to macroeconomic shocks and identifying policies that will encourage an efficient reallocation of labour. By examining the determinants of migration within Canada from 1991 to 2006, this article provides evidence that regional differences in employment rates and household incomes tend to increase labour migration, and that provincial borders and language differences are barriers to migration.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): J, J6, J61, R, R2, R23

Extraordinary Forward Guidance in Canada During the Pandemic

Staff analytical paper 2026-1 Christopher S. Sutherland
We consider two trade-offs inherent to extraordinary forward guidance (EFG): potency versus flexibility, and the credibility of forward guidance versus the credibility of inflation targeting. We argue that the form of EFG used by the Bank of Canada during the COVID‑19 pandemic balanced both trade-offs relatively well.

The Positive Case for a CBDC

Staff discussion paper 2021-11 Andrew Usher, Edona Reshidi, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Scott Hendry
We discuss the competition and innovation arguments for issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). A CBDC could be an effective competition policy tool for payments. A CBDC could also support the vibrancy of the digital economy. It could help solve market failures and foster competition and innovation in new digital payments markets.

Natural disasters and inflation in Canada

Staff analytical note 2025-8 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes
How do storms, floods and wildfires affect consumer prices? In the short term, natural disasters can significantly increase volatility in Canada-wide inflation. Over the long term, natural disasters influence inflation in shelter prices, especially when provincial output is already weak relative to trend.

The Impact of Potential Retail Central Bank Digital Currency on the Canadian Financial System During a Severe Recession

Staff analytical paper 2026-30 Sofia Priazhkina
This policy note examines how a non-interest-bearing retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) could affect the financial stability of Canada’s systemically important banks during a severe recession. Stress test results show that the banks remain resilient, maintaining key regulatory ratios even under high CBDC demand.
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