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2138 Results

Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting

Staff working paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant
This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks.

Quantitative Easing and Long‐Term Yields in Small Open Economies

Staff working paper 2017-26 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Maral Shamloo
We compare the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase programs with those implemented by the Bank of England and the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank’s reserve expansion program.

AI Agents for Cash Management in Payment Systems

Staff working paper 2025-35 Iñaki Aldasoro, Ajit Desai
Can artificial intelligence (AI) think and act like a cash manager? In this paper we explore how generative AI agents can help manage liquidity, prioritize payments and optimize efficiency in real-time gross settlement systems.

Is anyone surprised? The high-frequency impact of US and domestic macroeconomic data announcements on Canadian asset prices

Staff analytical note 2025-10 Blake DeBruin Martos, Rodrigo Sekkel, Henry Stern, Xu Zhang
Using almost two decades of detailed high-frequency data, we show how Canadian interest rates, the CAD/USD spot exchange rate, and stock market returns react to both US and domestic macro announcements. We find that Canadian macroeconomic announcements invoke greater responses in short-term yields, whereas US macroeconomic announcements play an increasingly important role in the yield movements of longer-term assets.

Overlooking the online world: Does mismeasurement of the digital economy explain the productivity slowdown?

Staff analytical note 2021-10 Alejandra Bellatin, Stéphanie Houle
Since the mid-2000s, labour productivity has slowed down in Canada despite enormous technological advances that were expected to improve it. This note investigates whether mismeasurement of the digital economy can explain this paradox.
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