December 21, 2006 Credit in a Tiered Payments System Financial System Review - December 2006 Alexandra Lai, Nikil Chande, Sean O'Connor Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios Staff analytical note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F13, F14, F15, F5, F50, F6, F62, F68 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation Staff working paper 2018-10 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille, Mohanad Salameh, Pierre St-Amant We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Fintech: Is This Time Different? A Framework for Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Central Banks Staff discussion paper 2017-10 Meyer Aaron, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Samantha Sohal We investigate the risks and opportunities to the mandates of central banks arising from fintech developments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G1, G2, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial system regulation and oversight, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Extraordinary Forward Guidance in Canada During the Pandemic Staff analytical paper 2026-1 Christopher S. Sutherland We consider two trade-offs inherent to extraordinary forward guidance (EFG): potency versus flexibility, and the credibility of forward guidance versus the credibility of inflation targeting. We argue that the form of EFG used by the Bank of Canada during the COVID‑19 pandemic balanced both trade-offs relatively well. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D3, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Non-Bank Dealing and Liquidity Bifurcation in Fixed-Income Markets Staff working paper 2025-2 Michael Brolley, David Cimon We model non-bank entry into fixed-income markets and state-dependent liquidity. Non-bank financial institutions improve liquidity more during normal times than in stress. Banks may become less reliable to marginal clients, exacerbating the difference in liquidity between normal and stressed times. Central bank lending during stress may limit this harmful division. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, G21, G23, L, L1, L10, L13, L14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation
Anchored Inflation Expectations: What Recent Data Reveal Staff working paper 2025-5 Olena Kostyshyna, Isabelle Salle, Hung Truong We analyze micro-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations through the lens of a heterogeneous-expectations model to study how inflation expectations form over the business cycle. We provide new insights into how households form expectations, documenting that forecasting behaviours, attention and noise in beliefs vary across socio-demographic groups and correlate with views about monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E70 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Are Hedge Funds a Hedge for Increasing Government Debt Issuance? Staff discussion paper 2025-7 Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao This paper studies the rapid increase since 2019 of Government of Canada (GoC) debt issuance alongside greater hedge fund participation at GoC bond auctions. We find a systematic relationship between GoC debt stock and hedge fund bidding shares at auction. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12, G2, G23, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
November 28, 2017 Shoring Up the Foundations for a More Resilient Banking System: The Development of Basel III Financial System Review - November 2017 Sheryl King, Alexandra Lai, Tamara Gomes The authors trace the development of the Basel III standards for banking regulation. Basel III builds on two earlier frameworks, in response to weaknesses revealed during the global financial crisis. They highlight how implementation of the standards will underpin greater financial stability and provide a sound foundation for economic growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G21, G28
December 21, 2008 Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada Financial System Review - December 2008 Miroslav Misina, Pierre St-Amant, Greg Tkacz Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles