Supply Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: Canadian Evidence Staff Working Paper 2002-31 Céline Gauthier, David Tessier In this paper, we study the impact of supply shocks on the Canadian real exchange rate. We specify a structural vector-error-correction model that links the real exchange rate to different fundamentals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F3, F31
Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff Working Paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52
Sovereign Default and State-Contingent Debt Staff Discussion Paper 2013-3 Martin Brooke, Rhys R. Mendes, Alex Pienkowski, Eric Santor The Latin American debt crises in the 1980s and the Asian crisis in the late 1990s both provided impetus for reforming the framework for restructuring sovereign debt. In the late 1980s, the Brady plan established the importance of substantive debt relief in addressing some crises. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34
Indebtedness and the Household Financial Health: An Examination of the Canadian Debt Service Ratio Distribution Staff Working Paper 2008-46 Umar Faruqui The household debt-to-disposable income ratio in Canada increased from 110 per cent in 1999 to 127 per cent in 2007. This increase has raised questions about the ability of households to service their increased debt if faced with a negative economic or socio-economic shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): D, D1, D11, D14, D3, D39
August 18, 2011 Mortgage Debt and Procyclicality in the Housing Market Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2011 Ian Christensen This article focuses on the role that loans backed by housing collateral play in amplifying housing booms and, more generally, procyclicality in the housing market. The author uses a model developed to include borrower and lender households, as well as a housing market, to examine the impact that altering the loan-to-value ratio (either permanently or countercyclically) might have on the volatility of house prices and mortgage debt. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing
Cash, COVID-19 and the Prospects for a Canadian Digital Dollar Staff Discussion Paper 2022-17 Walter Engert, Kim Huynh We provide an analysis of cash trends in Canada before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also consider the potential two scenarios for issuance of a central bank digital currency in Canada: the emergence of a cashless society or the widespread use of an alternative digital currency in Canada. Finally, we discuss the Canadian experience in maintaining cash as an efficient and accessible method of payment and store of value. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54
CBDC and Monetary Policy Staff Analytical Note 2020-4 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Yu Zhu Improving the conduct of monetary policy is unlikely to be the main motivation for central banks to issue a central bank digital currency (CBDC). While some argue that a CBDC could allow more complex transfer schemes or the ability to break below the zero lower bound, we find these benefits might be small or difficult to realize in practice. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E5, E51, E52
Inflation and Relative Price Dispersion in Canada: An Empirical Assessment Staff Working Paper 2005-28 André Binette, Sylvain Martel The authors investigate empirically the relationship between different aspects of inflation and relative price dispersion in Canada using a Markov regime-switching Phillips curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E31
December 11, 2007 The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2007-2008 Claude Lavoie, Stephen Murchison One of the most important factors that must be considered if countries are thinking about lowering the target level of inflation much below 2 per cent is the zero interest bound. Targeting inflation rates that are too low, the authors note, may restrict the ability of monetary policy to respond to economic shocks by limiting the amount by which interest rates can be eased. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation
September 15, 2008 Productivity in Canada: Does Firm Size Matter? Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 Danny Leung, Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima The research findings highlighted in this article suggest that firm-size differences play a significant role in explaining the productivity gap between Canada and the United States. The authors review factors that lead to a positive relationship between productivity and size and then look at Canadian evidence of this relationship at the firm level. They quantify the extent to which the change in Canadian productivity as well as the Canada-U.S. productivity differences can be accounted for by the change in the importance of large firms and identify several factors that play a role in determining average firm size and aggregate productivity. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Productivity