The Impact of Common Currencies on Financial Markets: A Literature Review and Evidence from the Euro Area Staff Working Paper 2002-35 Liliane Karlinger This paper reviews both the theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of common currencies on financial markets and evaluates the first three years of experience with Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F2, F21, F3, F36, G, G1, G15
Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature Staff Analytical Note 2018-3 Renaud St-Cyr The paper reviews evidence from the economic literature on the nature of the relationship between excess capacity and inflation, better known as the Phillips curve. In particular, we examine the linearity of this relationship. This is an important issue in the current economic context in which advanced economies are approaching or exceed their potential output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32
November 14, 2013 Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2013 Gurnain Pasricha, Tom Roberts, Ian Christensen, Brad Howell This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use to assess vulnerabilities. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E6, E66, G, G0, G01
Crypto ‘Money’: Perspective of a Couple of Canadian Central Bankers Staff Discussion Paper 2019-1 James Chapman, Carolyn A. Wilkins The market for cryptoassets has exploded in size in the 10 years since bitcoin was launched. The technology underlying cryptoassets, blockchain, has also been held up as a technology that promises to transform entire industries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E51, E58, H, H4, P, P4, P43
Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff Working Paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52
August 24, 2010 Re-examining Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework: Recent Research and Outstanding Issues Remarks John Murray Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario I am honoured to address members of the Canadian Association for Business Economics. My remarks today will focus on critical issues that the Bank of Canada has studied over the past four years and how this research will inform our work as we move forward post crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Degree of Internationalization and Performance: An Analysis of Canadian Banks Staff Working Paper 2005-32 Walid Hejazi, Eric Santor The international business literature measures the link between the degree of internationalization (DOI) of a firm's activities and its performance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): F, F2, F23, G, G2, G21
The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation Staff Working Paper 1997-10 Jim Day, Ron Lange This paper examines the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and future changes in inflation for Canada using a newly constructed par-value yield series. The main conclusion of the empirical work is that the slope of the nominal term structure from 1- to 5-year maturities is a reasonably good predictor of future changes in inflation over these horizons. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43
Indebtedness and the Household Financial Health: An Examination of the Canadian Debt Service Ratio Distribution Staff Working Paper 2008-46 Umar Faruqui The household debt-to-disposable income ratio in Canada increased from 110 per cent in 1999 to 127 per cent in 2007. This increase has raised questions about the ability of households to service their increased debt if faced with a negative economic or socio-economic shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): D, D1, D11, D14, D3, D39
A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting Staff Working Paper 1997-11 Robert Amano, Richard Black, Marcel Kasumovich This paper reviews selectively the literature on exchange rate target zones and corresponding methodologies and examines whether they can be used to analyse the inflation-control problem. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50