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3045 Results

Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19

Staff Working Paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai
We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model.

The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation

Staff Working Paper 1997-10 Jim Day, Ron Lange
This paper examines the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and future changes in inflation for Canada using a newly constructed par-value yield series. The main conclusion of the empirical work is that the slope of the nominal term structure from 1- to 5-year maturities is a reasonably good predictor of future changes in inflation over these horizons.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43
May 11, 2017

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017

Some suggest the global economy is facing a fourth industrial revolution. Bank researchers discuss the possible implications of digitalization on the economy. This issue also shares insights on the effectiveness of some unconventional monetary policies in a small open economy, how Government of Canada bonds are used throughout their life cycle, as well as how the Big Six Canadian banks choose their funding strategies and why. The final article examines the slow growth in business investment.

Indebtedness and the Household Financial Health: An Examination of the Canadian Debt Service Ratio Distribution

Staff Working Paper 2008-46 Umar Faruqui
The household debt-to-disposable income ratio in Canada increased from 110 per cent in 1999 to 127 per cent in 2007. This increase has raised questions about the ability of households to service their increased debt if faced with a negative economic or socio-economic shock.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): D, D1, D11, D14, D3, D39
September 15, 2008

Productivity in Canada: Does Firm Size Matter?

The research findings highlighted in this article suggest that firm-size differences play a significant role in explaining the productivity gap between Canada and the United States. The authors review factors that lead to a positive relationship between productivity and size and then look at Canadian evidence of this relationship at the firm level. They quantify the extent to which the change in Canadian productivity as well as the Canada-U.S. productivity differences can be accounted for by the change in the importance of large firms and identify several factors that play a role in determining average firm size and aggregate productivity.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Productivity

A Policy Model to Analyze Macroprudential Regulations and Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2014-6 Sami Alpanda, Gino Cateau, Césaire Meh
We construct a small-open-economy, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with real-financial linkages to analyze the effects of financial shocks and macroprudential policies on the Canadian economy. Our model has four key features.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F41

Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Framework for Assessing Why and How

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-22 Ben Fung, Hanna Halaburda
Digital currencies have attracted strong interest in recent years and have the potential to become widely adopted for use in making payments. Public authorities and central banks around the world are closely monitoring developments in digital currencies and studying their implications for the economy, the financial system and central banks.
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