High-Frequency Real Economic Activity Indicator for Canada Staff Working Paper 2013-42 Gitanjali Kumar I construct a weekly measure of real economic activity in Canada. Based on the work of Aruoba et al. (2009), the indicator is extracted as an unobserved component underlying the co-movement of four monthly observed real macroeconomic variables - employment, manufacturing sales, retail sales and GDP. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E3, E32
Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models Staff Working Paper 2009-6 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Virgiliu Midrigan Real rigidities that limit the responsiveness of real marginal cost to output are a key ingredient of sticky price models necessary to account for the dynamics of output and inflation. We argue here, in the spirit of Bils and Kahn (2000), that the behavior of marginal cost over the cycle is directly related to that of inventories, data on which is readily available. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F1, F12
The Microstructure of Multiple-Dealer Equity and Government Securities Markets: How They Differ Staff Working Paper 2002-9 Toni Gravelle Although dealership government and equity securities have, on the surface, similar market structures, the author demonstrates that some subtle differences exist between them that are likely to significantly affect the way market-makers trade, and as such have an impact on the liquidity that they provide. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G15, G18
Cash, COVID-19 and the Prospects for a Canadian Digital Dollar Staff Discussion Paper 2022-17 Walter Engert, Kim Huynh We provide an analysis of cash trends in Canada before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also consider the potential two scenarios for issuance of a central bank digital currency in Canada: the emergence of a cashless society or the widespread use of an alternative digital currency in Canada. Finally, we discuss the Canadian experience in maintaining cash as an efficient and accessible method of payment and store of value. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54
The Liquidity Trap: Evidence from Japan Staff Working Paper 1997-4 Isabelle Weberpals Japanese economic activity has been stagnant since the collapse of the speculative asset-price bubble in 1990, despite highly expansionary monetary policy which has brought interest rates down to record low levels. Although several reasons have been put forward to explain the sustained weakness of the Japanese economy, none is more intriguing from the viewpoint of a central bank than the possibility that monetary policy had been largely ineffective because the Japanese economy entered a Keynesian "liquidity trap." Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, E52
Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID-19: Does It “Get in All of the Cracks”? Staff Working Paper 2022-45 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, Nicholas Sander The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an atypical recession in which some sectors of the economy boomed and others collapsed. This required a unique fiscal policy reaction to both support firms and stimulate activity in sectors with slack. Was fiscal policy able to get where it was needed? Mostly, yes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, E, E6, E62, F, F4, F41
A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap Staff Working Paper 1997-5 Chantal Dupasquier, Alain Guay, Pierre St-Amant In this paper, the authors survey some of the recent techniques proposed in the literature to measure the trend component of output or potential output. Given the reported shortcomings of mechanical filters and univariate approaches to estimate potential output, the paper focusses on three simple multivariate methodologies: the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson methodology (MBN), Cochrane's methodology (CO), and the structural VAR methodology with long-run restrictions applied to output (LRRO). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E5, E52
Taylor Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model Staff Working Paper 2002-1 Ben Fung, Dinah Maclean, Jamie Armour In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in Taylor-type rules. Evidence in the literature suggests that Taylor-type rules are optimal in a number of models and are fairly robust across different models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
Competition in Banking: A Review of the Literature Staff Working Paper 2004-24 Carol Ann Northcott The author reviews the theoretical and empirical literature to examine the traditional perception that the following trade-off exists between economic efficiency and stability in the banking system: a competitive banking system is more efficient and therefore important to growth, but market power is necessary for stability in the banking system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28, L, L1, L11, L12, L13, L16
Inflation and Relative Price Dispersion in Canada: An Empirical Assessment Staff Working Paper 2005-28 André Binette, Sylvain Martel The authors investigate empirically the relationship between different aspects of inflation and relative price dispersion in Canada using a Markov regime-switching Phillips curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E31