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3035 Results

Calculating Effective Degrees of Freedom for Forecast Combinations and Ensemble Models

Staff Discussion Paper 2022-19 James Younker
This paper derives a calculation for the effective degrees of freedom of a forecast combination under a set of general conditions for linear models. Computing effective degrees of freedom shows that the complexity cost of a forecast combination is driven by the parameters in the weighting scheme and the weighted average of parameters in the auxiliary models.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C02, C1, C13, C5, C50, C51, C52, C53

COVID-19, Containment and Consumption

We assess the impact of COVID-19 on consumption indicators by estimating the effects of government-mandated containment measures and of the willingness of individuals to voluntarily physically distance to prevent contagion.
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