How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030 Staff working paper 2016-15 Jeannine Bailliu, Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov, Wheaton Welbourn Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E3, E32, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Extreme Downside Risk in Asset Returns Staff working paper 2019-46 Lerby Ergun Financial markets can experience sudden and extreme downward movements. Investors are highly concerned about the performance of their assets in such scenarios. Some assets perform badly in a downturn in the market; others have milder reactions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G1, G11, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
December 21, 2008 Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada Financial System Review - December 2008 Miroslav Misina, Pierre St-Amant, Greg Tkacz Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration Staff working paper 2018-15 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier There are indications that business dynamism has declined in advanced economies. In particular, firm entry and exit rates have fallen, suggesting that the creative destruction process has lost some of its vitality. Meanwhile, productivity growth has slowed. Some believe that lower entry and exit rates partly explain the weaker productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, M, M1, M13, O, O4, O47 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking Choices Staff working paper 2024-4 Jiaqi Li, Andrew Usher, Yu Zhu To what extent does a central bank digital currency (CBDC) compete with bank deposits? To answer this question, we develop and estimate a structural model where each household chooses which financial institution to deposit their digital money with. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Cash, COVID-19 and the Prospects for a Canadian Digital Dollar Staff discussion paper 2022-17 Walter Engert, Kim Huynh We provide an analysis of cash trends in Canada before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also consider the potential two scenarios for issuance of a central bank digital currency in Canada: the emergence of a cashless society or the widespread use of an alternative digital currency in Canada. Finally, we discuss the Canadian experience in maintaining cash as an efficient and accessible method of payment and store of value. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech
August 14, 1999 Passive Money, Active Money, and Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1999 David Laidler This article by the Bank's visiting economist examines the role of money in the transmission of monetary policy. Professor Laidler argues against the view of money as a passive variable that reacts to changes in prices, output, and interest rates but has no direct causative effect on them. He maintains that the empirical evidence supports the view of money playing an active role in the transmission mechanism. While he agrees that individual monetary aggregates can be difficult to read because of instabilities in the demand-for-money function, he argues that monetary aggregates, particularly those relating to transactions money, should have a more significant place in the hierarchy of policy variables that the Bank considers when formulating monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
June 23, 2005 Efficiency and Economies of Scale of Large Canadian Banks Financial System Review - June 2005 Jason Allen, Ying Liu Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
November 28, 2017 Shoring Up the Foundations for a More Resilient Banking System: The Development of Basel III Financial System Review - November 2017 Sheryl King, Alexandra Lai, Tamara Gomes The authors trace the development of the Basel III standards for banking regulation. Basel III builds on two earlier frameworks, in response to weaknesses revealed during the global financial crisis. They highlight how implementation of the standards will underpin greater financial stability and provide a sound foundation for economic growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G21, G28
August 22, 2009 Some Considerations on Using Monetary Policy to Stabilize Economic Activity Remarks Mark Carney symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole, Wyoming Walsh's paper highlights many useful lessons that can be learned from the conventional framework and its various extensions. However, the financial crisis provides a stark and costly reminder of just how incomplete the standard model is. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks