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3045 Results

Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty

Staff Working Paper 2000-10 James Yetman
The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. One possible response to such uncertainty is for the monetary authority to "probe," interpreted here as actively using its policy response to learn about the level of potential output.

A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth

Staff Working Paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel
This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data.

The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets

Staff Working Paper 2014-50 Vikram Rai, Lena Suchanek
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program has been accompanied by a flow of funds into emerging-market economies (EMEs) in search of higher returns.

Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature

Staff Analytical Note 2018-3 Renaud St-Cyr
The paper reviews evidence from the economic literature on the nature of the relationship between excess capacity and inflation, better known as the Phillips curve. In particular, we examine the linearity of this relationship. This is an important issue in the current economic context in which advanced economies are approaching or exceed their potential output.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature

Staff Discussion Paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel
Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy.

The Liquidity Trap: Evidence from Japan

Staff Working Paper 1997-4 Isabelle Weberpals
Japanese economic activity has been stagnant since the collapse of the speculative asset-price bubble in 1990, despite highly expansionary monetary policy which has brought interest rates down to record low levels. Although several reasons have been put forward to explain the sustained weakness of the Japanese economy, none is more intriguing from the viewpoint of a central bank than the possibility that monetary policy had been largely ineffective because the Japanese economy entered a Keynesian "liquidity trap."

High-Frequency Real Economic Activity Indicator for Canada

Staff Working Paper 2013-42 Gitanjali Kumar
I construct a weekly measure of real economic activity in Canada. Based on the work of Aruoba et al. (2009), the indicator is extracted as an unobserved component underlying the co-movement of four monthly observed real macroeconomic variables - employment, manufacturing sales, retail sales and GDP.

A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap

Staff Working Paper 1997-5 Chantal Dupasquier, Alain Guay, Pierre St-Amant
In this paper, the authors survey some of the recent techniques proposed in the literature to measure the trend component of output or potential output. Given the reported shortcomings of mechanical filters and univariate approaches to estimate potential output, the paper focusses on three simple multivariate methodologies: the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson methodology (MBN), Cochrane's methodology (CO), and the structural VAR methodology with long-run restrictions applied to output (LRRO).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E5, E52

Competition in Banking: A Review of the Literature

Staff Working Paper 2004-24 Carol Ann Northcott
The author reviews the theoretical and empirical literature to examine the traditional perception that the following trade-off exists between economic efficiency and stability in the banking system: a competitive banking system is more efficient and therefore important to growth, but market power is necessary for stability in the banking system.
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