AI Paradox: Promise vs. Reality—What It Means for Monetary Policy Staff analytical paper 2026-4 Joshua Brault, Maryam Haghighi, Jing Yang This note reviews the emerging evidence on AI’s labour-market and productivity effects, highlighting early task-level impacts, sizable micro level productivity gains, and the macroeconomic challenges these pose for monetary policy during the transition. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E50, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Extreme Downside Risk in Asset Returns Staff working paper 2019-46 Lerby Ergun Financial markets can experience sudden and extreme downward movements. Investors are highly concerned about the performance of their assets in such scenarios. Some assets perform badly in a downturn in the market; others have milder reactions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G1, G11, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking Choices Staff working paper 2024-4 Jiaqi Li, Andrew Usher, Yu Zhu To what extent does a central bank digital currency (CBDC) compete with bank deposits? To answer this question, we develop and estimate a structural model where each household chooses which financial institution to deposit their digital money with. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
August 14, 1999 Passive Money, Active Money, and Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Summer 1999 David Laidler This article by the Bank's visiting economist examines the role of money in the transmission of monetary policy. Professor Laidler argues against the view of money as a passive variable that reacts to changes in prices, output, and interest rates but has no direct causative effect on them. He maintains that the empirical evidence supports the view of money playing an active role in the transmission mechanism. While he agrees that individual monetary aggregates can be difficult to read because of instabilities in the demand-for-money function, he argues that monetary aggregates, particularly those relating to transactions money, should have a more significant place in the hierarchy of policy variables that the Bank considers when formulating monetary policy. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
December 21, 2008 Credit, Asset Prices, and Financial Stress in Canada Financial System Review - December 2008 Miroslav Misina, Pierre St-Amant, Greg Tkacz Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada Staff analytical note 2016-12 Martin Kuncl During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E6, E65, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Payments on Digital Platforms: Resiliency, Interoperability and Welfare Staff working paper 2021-19 Jonathan Chiu, Tsz-Nga Wong This paper studies the business model choice between running a cash platform and a token platform, as well as its welfare and policy implications. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, L, L5 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Central Bank Liquidity Facilities and Market Making Staff working paper 2022-9 David Cimon, Adrian Walton We create a theoretical model of central bank asset purchases. The model helps explain how, in a crisis, these purchases ease pressures on investment dealers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20, L, L1, L10 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
August 19, 2002 Models in Policy-Making Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2002 Donald Coletti, Stephen Murchison This article examines another strategy in the Bank's approach to dealing with an uncertain world: the use of carefully articulated models to produce economic forecasts and to examine the implications of the various risks to those forecasts. Economic models are deliberate simplifications of a complex world that allow economists to make predictions that are reasonably accurate and that can be easily understood and communicated. By using several models, based on competing paradigms, the Bank minimizes policy errors that could result from relying on one view of the world and one philosophy of model design. The authors review some of the models currently used at the Bank, as well as the role of judgment in the projection process. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
November 1, 2006 Renewal of the Inflation-Control Target (November 2006) Commentary and technical data relating to the 2006 target renewal. Content Type(s): Background materials