Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market Staff Analytical Note 2022-18 Alexander Lam Canada’s labour market is tight but beginning to ease. Unemployment will likely rise in turn, but the economy can avoid a recessionary surge given current conditions. Higher unemployment would nonetheless be material, especially for those directly impacted. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, J, J2, J20, J6, J63, J64
Non-Bank Financial Intermediation in Canada: An Update Staff Discussion Paper 2019-2 Guillaume Bédard-Pagé Non-bank financing provides an important funding source for the economy and is a valuable alternative to traditional banking. It helps enhance the efficiency and resiliency of the financial system while giving customers more choices for their financial services. Unlike banking, it is not prudentially regulated. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G20, G23
A Calibrated Model of Intraday Settlement Staff Discussion Paper 2018-3 Héctor Pérez Saiz, Siddharth Untawala, Gabriel Xerri This paper estimates potential exposures, netting benefits and settlement gains by merging retail and wholesale payments into batches and conducting multiple intraday settlements in this hypothetical model of a single "calibrated payments system." The results demonstrate that credit risk exposures faced by participants in the system are largely dependent on their relative activity in the retail and wholesale payments systems. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G23
Inflation Targeting under Uncertainty Technical Report No. 85 Gabriel Srour This paper studies the implications of certain kinds of uncertainty for monetary policy. It first describes the optimum policy rule in a simple model of the transmission mechanism as in Ball and Svensson. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52
March 31, 2021 Toward 2021: Consultations with Canadians (March 2021) In 2021, the Bank of Canada and the federal government renewed the agreement on Canada’s monetary policy framework. To inform our discussions, the Bank conducted a broad range of public outreach activities between 2019 and 2021. This report summarizes our findings.
February 9, 2017 Getting to the Core of Inflation Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Department of Economics, Western University London, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the uses and measures of core inflation in the conduct of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
November 4, 2014 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario Good morning, Mr. Chairman and committee members. I am pleased to introduce you to Carolyn Wilkins, who assumed the post of Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada on 2 May of this year. Before we take your questions, let me give you some of the highlights of the economic outlook. I’ll draw mainly […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
April 5, 2012 Annual Report 2011 2011 was a challenging year for the global economy. Amid global turbulence, Canada’s macroeconomic policy framework has stood us well. The 2011 Annual Report provides a Message from the Governor, highlights key achievements over the year, describes the Bank’s corporate governance, and presents financial statements in conjunction with Management’s Discussion and Analysis. Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
The Shift in Canadian Immigration Composition and its Effect on Wages Staff Discussion Paper 2025-8 Julien Champagne, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Mallory Long We document recent changes in Canadian immigration, marked by an increasing prevalence of temporary residency. Using microdata from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey, we show that temporary workers' characteristics and nominal wages have diverged from those of Canadian-born workers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): J, J2, J20, J24, J6, J61
Unit-Root Tests and Excess Returns Staff Working Paper 1996-10 Marie-Josée Godbout, Simon van Norden Several recent papers have presented evidence from foreign exchange and other markets suggesting that the log of excess returns can be characterized as first-order integrated processes (I(1)). This contrasts sharply with the "conventional" wisdom that log prices are integrated of order one I(1) and that log returns should therefore be integrated of order zero I(0), and even more sharply with the view that past returns have no ability to predict future returns (weak market efficiency). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, F, F3, F31