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3045 Results

Do Firms’ Sales Expectations Hit the Mark? Evidence from the Business Leaders’ Pulse

Staff Discussion Paper 2025-15 Owen Gaboury, Farrukh Suvankulov, Mathieu Utting
We analyze Canadian data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Leaders’ Pulse, examining firms’ sales growth expectations. We find that expected growth predicts outcomes, uncertainty influences forecast errors and revisions, and firms with weak past performance anticipate and experience weaker future growth. These results highlight the survey’s value for understanding business expectations.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22
September 19, 2024

Monetary policy decision-making: Behind the scenes

Remarks Nicolas Vincent Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce and Industry Sherbrooke, Quebec
External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent gives a behind the scenes look at the rigorous research, analysis and debate that go into every monetary policy decision.

What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?

This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.
November 8, 1995

The role of monetary conditions and the monetary conditions index in the conduct of policy

In these excerpts from a presentation to a conference in Toronto, Deputy Governor Charles Freedman analyses the way in which the monetary conditions index (MCI) enters into the Bank's thinking and actions. He describes how the Bank works in the context of a forward-looking assessment of economic developments and inflationary pressures to decide upon a desired path for the MCI that will result in a rate of inflation, six to eight quarters ahead, that is within the Bank's target band. Mr. Freedman also uses specific examples to explain how various shocks to the economy can change the Bank's desired path for monetary conditions. He describes the role that tactical considerations relating to market circumstances play regarding the timing of Bank actions to bring monetary conditions onto the desired path and emphasizes the need to give precedence to steadying nervous markets.
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