November 8, 2006 The Canadian Economy and Financial Markets in Perspective Remarks David Longworth World Hedge Funds Summit Vaughan, Ontario The hedge fund industry has been growing so quickly that meetings like this one are welcome—they provide a chance to step back and look at context and trends. And that's what I propose to do this morning. Specifically, I'd like to speak about volatility in both the real economy and in financial markets and discuss how it has been affected by monetary policy and financial innovation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
December 14, 1997 Recent economic and financial developments Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1997-1998 The Canadian economy expanded at an average rate of over 4 per cent through the second half of 1996 and the first three quarters of 1997. The expansion was supported by accommodative monetary conditions, substantial employment gains, low inflation, an improved fiscal postion, and strong U.S. demand. These factors will continue to underpin a scenario of sustained growth in output and employment in the period ahead. With the situation in Asia still evolving, it is difficult to be precise about the size of its overall impact on Canada. At the same time, there have been some positive developments including stronger-than-anticipated economic performance in the United States, Mexico, and Europe and declining longer-term interest rates in most industrial countries. The core rate of inflation slipped slightly below the 1 to 3 per cent target range in the closing months of 1997. With the unwinding of some of the special factors that contributed to the decline, trend inflation is expected to move back inside the range in coming months. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Recent economic and financial developments
May 30, 2017 Fellowship Award nominations Find out the eligibility and process for Fellowship Award nominations.
Do Firms’ Sales Expectations Hit the Mark? Evidence from the Business Leaders’ Pulse Staff Discussion Paper 2025-15 Owen Gaboury, Farrukh Suvankulov, Mathieu Utting We analyze Canadian data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Leaders’ Pulse, examining firms’ sales growth expectations. We find that expected growth predicts outcomes, uncertainty influences forecast errors and revisions, and firms with weak past performance anticipate and experience weaker future growth. These results highlight the survey’s value for understanding business expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22
October 29, 2014 Opening Statement before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. I am pleased to introduce you to Carolyn Wilkins, who assumed the post of Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada on 2 May of this year. Before we take your questions, let me give you some of the highlights of the economic outlook. I’ll draw mainly […] Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
State Space and ARMA Models: An Overview of the Equivalence Staff Working Paper 1993-00 Paul Gilbert In this paper known results about the equivalence of state space and autoregressive moving-average models with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) (including vector auto-regressive or VAR models) are reviewed. While most of these results are not new, no single reference appears to bring together several important related points. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers
The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Estimation of the Total Private Cost for Large Businesses Technical Report No. 110 Valéry Dongmo Jiongo The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods faced low response rates and outliers in sample data for two of its retailer strata: chains and large independent businesses. This technical report investigates whether it is appropriate to combine these two strata to produce more accurate estimates of the total private cost to large businesses of the main payment methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C8, C83
September 15, 2008 The Effects of Recent Relative Price Movements on the Canadian Economy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 David Dupuis, Philippe Marcil Although the standard of living of Canadians has improved as a result of terms-of-trade gains created by the sharp rise in real commodity prices over the past five years or so, the commodity-price increase, combined with an exchange rate appreciation and real income gain, triggered structural adjustments by altering underlying economic incentives. The frictions generated in adjusting to the relative price shock have likely contributed to hold back aggregate productivity growth. Dupuis and Marcil examine the structural adjustments that have been required-in particular, the resource reallocation among the different sectors of the economy-and its effects on employment, output, and productivity, as well as the responses of final domestic demand and external trade flows. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
September 11, 2009 Understanding Corporate Bond Spreads Using Credit Default Swaps Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2009 Alejandro García, Jun Yang Corporate bond spreads worldwide have widened markedly since the beginning of the credit crisis in 2007. This article examines default and liquidity risk–the main components of the corporate bond spread–for Canadian firms that issue bonds in the U.S. market, focusing in particular on their evolution during the credit crisis. They find that, during this period, the liquidity component increased more for speculative-grade bonds than it did for investment-grade bonds, consistent with a "flight-to-quality" phenomenon. An important implication of their results for policy-makers seeking to address problems in credit markets is that the liquidity risk in corporate spreads for investment and speculative bonds behaves differently than the default risk, especially during crisis episodes. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability
July 18, 2000 Proposed revisions to the rules pertaining to auctions of Receiver General term deposits (discussion paper) Comments: On 18 July 2000, the government and Bank of Canada made public a discussion paper concerning the management of the federal government's cash balances. The paper outlined the current framework and proposed changes, intended to increase competition and to strengthen the management of risks, in particular the credit risks involved in the investment of […]