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Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are happy to be before you today. It is our normal practice to appear before this committee twice a year to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). We published our latest MPR last week and are happy to answer questions about […]

Good morning. Tiff and I are pleased to be here with you today to discuss the October Monetary Policy Report, which the Bank published last week. The global economy has slowed markedly as several downside risks to the projection outlined in the Bank’s July MPR have been realized. Volatility has increased and there has been […]

Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses monetary policy decision making and how the Bank assesses the underlying trend in inflation.

Consumers’ perceptions of inflation are unchanged from a quarter ago, but their expectations for near-term inflation declined significantly. While both measures have improved substantially in recent quarters, they remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Most consumers continue to think that domestic factors are contributing to high inflation. Sentiment remains subdued and unchanged from last quarter, as high inflation and elevated interest rates continue to constrain people’s budgets. Perceived financial stress remains high, most consumers continue to report spending cuts, and pessimism about future economic conditions persists. Canadians’ perceptions of the labour market have weakened this quarter, especially among private sector employees. Yet overall wage growth expectations reached a new survey high, driven by public sector employees.

Remarks by David Dodge, Governor of the Bank of Canada, to the Canadian Economics Association

Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

We analyze Canadian data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Leaders’ Pulse, examining firms’ sales growth expectations. We find that expected growth predicts outcomes, uncertainty influences forecast errors and revisions, and firms with weak past performance anticipate and experience weaker future growth. These results highlight the survey’s value for understanding business expectations.

Results in the first quarter of 2023 show that consumer expectations for inflation one to two years ahead fell but remain elevated, particularly for services. Consumers, especially indebted households and equity-deserving groups, are facing financial pressures and limits on their spending due to high inflation and increasing interest rates. Consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services, such as travelling and eating out. Canadians continue to anticipate a recession in the next 12 months. Many are uncertain about where the economy and job markets are going. Despite this, workers still see the labour market as strong and expect wage growth to increase.

The LVTS is an electronic network for sending and receiving large-value payments. It is expected to become operational in the first half of 1999. Major chartered banks and other large deposit-taking institutions will provide access to the system for their clients in the financial, corporate and government sectors. Canada’s LVTS exceeds world standards for risk control in large-value systems. The author explains how this is achieved through the netting, bilateral and multilateral credit limits, collateral, and loss-sharing procedures used in the event of a default, and, as a last resort, a guarantee by the Bank of Canada. The LVTS gives participating institutions certainty of settlement for their LVTS positions every day, even if one or more participants default. This greatly reduces systemic risk in the financial system. Moreover, the LVTS supports finality of payment; that is, it makes funds unconditionally and irrevocably available to the receiver. Finality is highly desirable when the amount of the payment is substantial, or when exact timing is critical. Since the LVTS will carry the great majority of the value of all payments in Canada, it should be considered the core of the national payments system.

Governor Mark Carney discusses financial system reform in a speech to the Canadian Club of Montréal.