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3045 Results

A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth

Staff Working Paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel
This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data.

Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature

Staff Discussion Paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel
Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy.

What Matters in Determining Capital Surcharges for Systemically Important Financial Institutions?

Staff Discussion Paper 2011-9 Céline Gauthier, Toni Gravelle, Xuezhi Liu, Moez Souissi
One way of internalizing the externalities that each individual bank imposes on the rest of the financial system is to impose capital surcharges on them in line with their systemic importance.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21

High-Frequency Real Economic Activity Indicator for Canada

Staff Working Paper 2013-42 Gitanjali Kumar
I construct a weekly measure of real economic activity in Canada. Based on the work of Aruoba et al. (2009), the indicator is extracted as an unobserved component underlying the co-movement of four monthly observed real macroeconomic variables - employment, manufacturing sales, retail sales and GDP.

The Liquidity Trap: Evidence from Japan

Staff Working Paper 1997-4 Isabelle Weberpals
Japanese economic activity has been stagnant since the collapse of the speculative asset-price bubble in 1990, despite highly expansionary monetary policy which has brought interest rates down to record low levels. Although several reasons have been put forward to explain the sustained weakness of the Japanese economy, none is more intriguing from the viewpoint of a central bank than the possibility that monetary policy had been largely ineffective because the Japanese economy entered a Keynesian "liquidity trap."

Competition in Banking: A Review of the Literature

Staff Working Paper 2004-24 Carol Ann Northcott
The author reviews the theoretical and empirical literature to examine the traditional perception that the following trade-off exists between economic efficiency and stability in the banking system: a competitive banking system is more efficient and therefore important to growth, but market power is necessary for stability in the banking system.

A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap

Staff Working Paper 1997-5 Chantal Dupasquier, Alain Guay, Pierre St-Amant
In this paper, the authors survey some of the recent techniques proposed in the literature to measure the trend component of output or potential output. Given the reported shortcomings of mechanical filters and univariate approaches to estimate potential output, the paper focusses on three simple multivariate methodologies: the multivariate Beveridge-Nelson methodology (MBN), Cochrane's methodology (CO), and the structural VAR methodology with long-run restrictions applied to output (LRRO).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E5, E52

Sovereign Default and State-Contingent Debt

Staff Discussion Paper 2013-3 Martin Brooke, Rhys R. Mendes, Alex Pienkowski, Eric Santor
The Latin American debt crises in the 1980s and the Asian crisis in the late 1990s both provided impetus for reforming the framework for restructuring sovereign debt. In the late 1980s, the Brady plan established the importance of substantive debt relief in addressing some crises.
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