The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States Staff Working Paper 2002-22 Brigitte Desroches, Marc-André Gosselin This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, E27
Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff Working Paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52
A Small Dynamic Hybrid Model for the Euro Area Staff Working Paper 2003-19 Ramdane Djoudad, Céline Gauthier The authors estimate and solve a small structural model for the euro area over the 1983–2000 period. Given the assumption of rational expectations, the model implies a set of orthogonality conditions that provide the basis for estimating the model's parameter by generalized method of moments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
Retail Payment Innovations and Cash Usage: Accounting for Attrition Using Refreshment Samples Staff Working Paper 2014-27 Heng Chen, Marie-Hélène Felt, Kim Huynh We exploit the panel dimension of the Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) data to estimate the impact of retail payment innovations on cash usage. We estimate a semiparametric panel data model that accounts for unobserved heterogeneity and allows for general forms of non-random attrition. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, E, E4, E41
Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID-19: Does It “Get in All of the Cracks”? Staff Working Paper 2022-45 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, Nicholas Sander The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an atypical recession in which some sectors of the economy boomed and others collapsed. This required a unique fiscal policy reaction to both support firms and stimulate activity in sectors with slack. Was fiscal policy able to get where it was needed? Mostly, yes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, E, E6, E62, F, F4, F41
October 3, 2017 Seeking Gazelles in Polar Bear Country Remarks Sylvain Leduc Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce Sherbrooke, Quebec Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses the decline in firm creation and productivity in the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, International topics, Market structure and pricing, Potential output, Productivity
A Policy Model to Analyze Macroprudential Regulations and Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2014-6 Sami Alpanda, Gino Cateau, Césaire Meh We construct a small-open-economy, New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with real-financial linkages to analyze the effects of financial shocks and macroprudential policies on the Canadian economy. Our model has four key features. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F41
Non-Linearities in the Output-Inflation Relationship: Some Empirical Results for Canada Staff Working Paper 1998-14 Chantal Dupasquier, Nicholas Ricketts This paper analyzes the short-run dynamic process of inflation in Canada and examines whether a systematic variation in the relationship between inflation and output can be detected over time. In the theoretical literature, different models of price-setting behaviour predict that the slope of the Phillips curve will be a function of macroeconomic conditions, implying a […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits, Productivity
Consumer Cash Usage: A Cross-Country Comparison with Payment Diary Survey Data Staff Working Paper 2014-20 John Bagnall, David Bounie, Kim Huynh, Anneke Kosse, Tobias Schmidt, Scott Schuh, Helmut Stix We measure consumers’ use of cash by harmonizing payment diary surveys from seven countries. The seven diary surveys were conducted in 2009 (Canada), 2010 (Australia), 2011 (Austria, France, Germany and the Netherlands), and 2012 (the United States). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E4, E41, E5, E58
Financial Conditions and the Money-Output Relationship in Canada Staff Working Paper 2012-33 Maral Kichian We propose a drifting-coefficient model to empirically study the effect of money on output growth in Canada and to examine the role of prevailing financial conditions for that relationship. We show that such a time-varying approach can be a useful way of modelling the impact of money on growth, and can partly reconcile the lack of concensus in the literature on the question of whether money affects growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E51