Introducing the Bank of Canada's Projection Model for the Global Economy Technical Report No. 99 Jeannine Bailliu, Patrick Blagrave, James Rossiter To complement its existing set of tools to analyze and forecast developments in the global economy, the Bank of Canada recently developed a version of the Global Projection Model (GPM) jointly with staff at the International Monetary Fund. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F0, F01
Public Policy Objectives and the Next Generation of CPA Systems: An Analytical Framework Staff Discussion Paper 2015-6 James Chapman, Jonathan Chiu, Sajjad Jafri, Héctor Pérez Saiz The payments landscape in Canada is rapidly changing and will continue to evolve, fuelled by strong and persistent drivers. In Canada, the Canadian Payments Association (CPA) is on a path to modernize Canada’s core payment systems. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L15, L5, L52
March 24, 2010 The Virtue of Productivity in a Wicked World Remarks Mark Carney Ottawa Economics Association Ottawa, Ontario It is either brave or foolhardy of the Ottawa Economics Association to organize another conference around Canada's perennial challenges of demographics, productivity, and potential growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
January 15, 2024 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2023 Consumers believe inflation has fallen, but their expectations for inflation in the near term are showing little progress in returning to pre-pandemic levels. Slow progress may be due to persistently high inflation expectations for services such as rent. In addition, consumers increasingly think domestic factors, such as high government spending, are supporting high inflation, and they believe these factors will take longer to resolve than global factors. Consumers have adjusted their behaviour in response to prolonged high inflation—more people are paying attention to inflation and changing their spending habits. However, actions that may support inflation, such as seeking wage increases to offset it, are dissipating. The negative effects of high interest rates are broadening, and indicators of household financial stress are deteriorating. Consumers remain uncertain about the economic outlook, and this uncertainty is weighing on their spending plans. Workers think the labour market has weakened slightly. However, expectations for wage growth remain high, supported by cost-of-living adjustments in some workers’ wage contracts. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
Archetypes for a retail CBDC Staff Analytical Note 2022-14 Sriram Darbha A variety of technology designs could support retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) systems. We develop five archetypes of CBDC systems, outline their characteristics and discuss their trade-offs. This work serves as a framework to analyze and compare different designs, independent of vendor, platform and implementation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, O, O3
September 25, 2007 Turbulence in Credit Markets: Causes, Effects, and Lessons To Be Learned Remarks David Dodge Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia The turbulence in financial markets did not come about against a backdrop of economic weakness. Indeed, over the past number of years, the global economy has shown remarkable strength. We were also seeing encouraging signs of growth being spread more evenly. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Repo Market Functioning when the Interest Rate Is Low or Negative Staff Discussion Paper 2017-3 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, James Hately, Adrian Walton This paper investigates how a low or negative overnight interest rate might affect the Canadian repo markets. The main conclusion is that the repo market for general collateral will continue to function effectively. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G10, G12
December 8, 2015 Prudent Preparation: The Evolution of Unconventional Monetary Policies Remarks Stephen S. Poloz The Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario Governor Poloz speaks about the Bank’s updated framework for unconventional monetary policies. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
June 6, 2013 Opening Statement before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance Ottawa, Ontario Bank of Canada Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the current economic context and how that is influencing the Bank’s work of delivering confidence. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements
Tech Reluctance: Fostering Empathy for Canadians Facing Challenges with Digital Systems Staff Discussion Paper 2025-2 Sebastian Hernandez, Helena Wang, Badr Omrane, Vera Roberts, David Pereyra We find that individuals who require help performing banking tasks or who are reluctant to adopt technology avoid digital payment systems they expect to lack usability. Addressing these issues through standard accessibility practices, live assistance and thoughtful interface design can enhance user interaction and trust. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Accessibility, Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Digitalization, Financial services JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, C, C9, C90, D, D8, D83, O, O3, O33, Y, Y8, Y80