Correcting Selection Bias in a Non-Probability Two-Phase Payment Survey Staff Working Paper 2025-17 Heng Chen, John Tsang We develop statistical inferences for a non-probability two-phase survey sample when relevant auxiliary information is available from a probability survey sample. The proposed method is assessed by simulation studies and used to analyze a non-probability two phase payment survey. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83
Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy Staff Working Paper 2023-60 Agostina Brinatti, Xing Guo We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F16, F2, F22, J, J6, J61
Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments Staff Working Paper 2019-27 George Evans, Cars Hommes, Isabelle Salle, Bruce McGough Most models in finance assume that agents make trading plans over the infinite future. We consider instead that they are boundedly rational and may only form forecasts over a limited horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D84, E
A New Measure of the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate Staff Discussion Paper 2016-1 Russell Barnett, Karyne B. Charbonneau, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle Canada’s international competitiveness has received increasing attention in recent years as exports have fallen short of expectations and Canada has lost market share. This paper asks whether the Bank of Canada’s current effective exchange rate measure, the CERI, is still an accurate measure of Canada’s international competitiveness. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F3, F31
May 16, 2019 Financial System Review—2019 In our Financial System Review, we identify the main vulnerabilities and risks to financial stability in Canada and explain how they have evolved over the past year. This issue reflects the Bank’s judgment that the vulnerabilities associated with high household debt and imbalances in the housing market have declined modestly but remain significant. The Financial System Review is a product of the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada: Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins, Timothy Lane, Lawrence Schembri, Lynn Patterson and Paul Beaudry. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
October 23, 2013 Monetary Policy Report – October 2013 The Canadian economy is expected to grow by 1.6 per cent in 2013, 2.3 per cent in 2014 and 2.6 per cent in 2015, and to reach full production capacity around the end of 2015. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
May 14, 2015 The Slowdown in Global Trade Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 Michael Francis, Louis Morel Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4, F6
Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function Staff Working Paper 2023-61 Tony Chernis, Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Gary Koop, James Mitchell This paper studies non-parametric combinations of density forecasts. We introduce a regression tree-based approach that allows combination weights to vary on the features of the densities, time-trends or economic indicators. In two empirical applications, we show the benefits of this approach in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, C5, C53
Four Decades of Canadian Earnings Inequality and Dynamics Across Workers and Firms Staff Working Paper 2021-20 Audra Bowlus, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Huju Liu, Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park We use four decades of Canadian matched employer-employee data to explore how inequality and the dynamics of individual earnings have evolved over time in Canada. We also examine how the earnings growth of individuals is related to the growth of their employers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J2, J24, J3, J31, J6, J63
Asymmetric Systemic Risk Staff Working Paper 2022-19 Radoslav Raykov, Consuelo Silva-Buston Bank regulation presumes risks spill over more easily from large banks to the banking system than vice versa. Interestingly, we observe this is not the case. We find that the capacity to transmit risk is larger in the system-to-bank direction, leading to an increased default risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20