Le modèle USM d'analyse et de projection de l'économie américaine Staff Working Paper 2000-19 René Lalonde In this study, the author presents a new forecast and analysis model for the U.S. economy (i.e., the USM model) constructed at the Bank of Canada. The USM has a number of advantages over its predecessor, the VSM model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers
Best Instruments for Market Discipline in Banking Staff Working Paper 2007-9 Greg Caldwell The author develops a dynamic model of banking competition to determine which capital instrument is most effective in disciplining banks' risk choice. Comparisons are conducted between equity, subordinated debentures (SD), and uninsured deposits (UD) as funding sources. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28
Characterizing Canada’s Export Sector by Industry: A Supply-Side Perspective Staff Analytical Note 2018-27 Taylor Webley This note examines supply-side trends in Canadian non-energy industries and their implications for export performance. Between 2002 and 2016, capital stocks and total labour input declined in many industries that export non-energy goods. These soft trends in the factors of production have likely contributed to the decline in non-energy exports in about half of the goods industries analyzed in this note. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E24, F, F1, F19
May 8, 1995 Exchange rate fundamentals and the Canadian dollar Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1995 Robert Lafrance, Simon van Norden Views in the economic literature on the main factors that influence exchange rates have evolved over time in response to economic developments and new trends in economic theory. This article provides a brief interpretative survey of the main theories of exchange rate determination. The factors that influence exchange rate developments are varied and complex. However, the authors show that the broad movements of the Canada-U.S. real exchange rate since the early 1970s can be captured by a simple equation that highlights the role of commodity prices and Canada-U.S. interest rate differentials. The equation is used to interpret the evolution of the real exchange rate over the last two decades. At times, the real exchange rate deviates significantly from what the equation would predict. One explanation is that the equation omits certain factors that can influence the exchange rate, particularly in the short run. These may include fiscal policy variables, international indebtedness, political uncertainty, and investor sentiments—factors that are difficult to quantify but that have been particularly relevant in recent years. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Exchange rates
Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System Staff Discussion Paper 2020-9 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang As part of modernizing its core payments infrastructure, Canada will replace the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) with a new Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system called Lynx. An important question for policy-makers is how Lynx should be designed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4, E42, E5, E58
A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market Staff Analytical Note 2019-17 Reinhard Ellwanger This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
How Long is Forever in the Laboratory? Three Implementations of an Infinite-Horizon Monetary Economy Staff Working Paper 2021-16 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang Standard monetary models adopt an infinite horizon with discounting. Testing these models in the lab requires implementing this horizon within a limited time frame. We compare three approaches to such an implementation and discuss their relative advantages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40
March 26, 2014 Oversight Activities during 2013 under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act This report reviews the Bank of Canada's oversight activities during 2013 and priorities for 2014 pursuant to the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act (PCSA). This annual report is intended to provide transparency and accountability regarding the Bank's activities in this area. Content Type(s): Press, Announcements
Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment Staff Analytical Note 2018-10 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Bassirou Gueye, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6
April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2016-4 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Shutao Cao, Natalia Kyui, Pierre St-Amant This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity