What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure Staff Discussion Paper 2017-11 Sarah Miller, David Amirault, Laurent Martin Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C8, C81, D, D2, D22
Learning in a Complex World: Insights from an OLG Lab Experiment Staff Working Paper 2023-13 Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber, Daria Minina, Isabelle Salle This paper brings novel insights into group coordination and price dynamics in complex environments. We implement a chaotic overlapping-generation model in the lab and find that group coordination is always on the steady state or on the two-cycle and that behavior is non-monotonic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, C68, C9, C91, C92, E, E1, E13, E7, E70, G, G1, G12, G4, G41
Is Central Bank Currency Fundamental to the Monetary System? Staff Discussion Paper 2020-2 Hanna Armelius, Carl Andreas Claussen, Scott Hendry In this paper, we discuss whether the ability of individuals to convert commercial bank money (i.e., bank deposits) into central bank money is fundamentally important for the monetary system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5
Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound Staff Working Paper 2020-2 Jasmina Arifovic, Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle, Gauthier Vermandel This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, E, E3, E32, E5, E52
La fonction de production et les données canadiennes Staff Working Paper 2005-20 Patrick Perrier This study has two aspects. First, the author examines the theoretical properties of the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function and the implications of this formulation for the properties of a structural macroeconomic model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, E, E2, E23, O, O4, O40
The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices Staff Analytical Note 2016-1 Julien Champagne, Nikita Perevalov, Hope Pioro, Dany Brouillette, Andrew Agopsowicz In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rates, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E5, E52, J, J2, Q, Q0, Q00
Le modèle USM d'analyse et de projection de l'économie américaine Staff Working Paper 2000-19 René Lalonde In this study, the author presents a new forecast and analysis model for the U.S. economy (i.e., the USM model) constructed at the Bank of Canada. The USM has a number of advantages over its predecessor, the VSM model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers
October 26, 2011 Monetary Policy Report – October 2011 The Bank projects that the economy will expand by 2.1 per cent in 2011, 1.9 per cent in 2012 and 2.9 per cent in 2013. Total CPI inflation is expected to trough around 1 per cent by the middle of 2012. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2016-4 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Shutao Cao, Natalia Kyui, Pierre St-Amant This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity
Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence Staff Working Paper 2023-25 John Duffy, Janet Hua Jiang, Huan Xie We study the trading of an asset with bankruptcy risk. The traded price of the asset is, on average, 40% of the expected total dividend payments. We investigate which economic models can explain the low traded price. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D81, G, G1, G12