Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff working paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Money and payments, Retail payments
A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth Staff working paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C38, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
December 23, 2003 The Comparative Growth of Goods and Services Prices Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2003-2004 Edith Gagnon, Patrick Sabourin, Sébastien Lavoie For several decades, the prices of services have been rising more rapidly than the prices of goods in Canada and the other major industrialized countries. In 2002, this gap between the growth rates of these two components of the consumer price index (CPI) widened considerably, leading researchers to ask if this was the beginning of a trend. Analysis reveals, however, that the gap is based on short-term dynamics and that it appears to be independent of the trend in the development of the overall price level. Evidence also shows that the gap is eventually reabsorbed. The authors examine a number of potential causes for the prices of services to rise faster than those of goods. These include the more rapid pace of productivity growth in the goods sector, the greater openness of goods to foreign trade, and stronger growth in the demand for services. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
September 10, 2020 Economic progress report: a very uneven recovery Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem The Canadian Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and explains the uneven impact that the COVID-19 pandemic is having on different sectors and people. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
On What States Do Prices Depend? Answers from Ecuador Staff working paper 2016-43 Craig Benedict, Mario J. Crucini, Anthony Landry In this paper, we argue that differences in the cost structures across sectors play an important role in firms’ decisions to adjust their prices. We develop a menu-cost model of pricing in which retail firms intermediate trade between producers and consumers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, F, F3, F33 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
May 11, 2017 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Some suggest the global economy is facing a fourth industrial revolution. Bank researchers discuss the possible implications of digitalization on the economy. This issue also shares insights on the effectiveness of some unconventional monetary policies in a small open economy, how Government of Canada bonds are used throughout their life cycle, as well as how the Big Six Canadian banks choose their funding strategies and why. The final article examines the slow growth in business investment. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
June 20, 2010 The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Cross-Border Funding Financial System Review - June 2010 Harri Vikstedt, Jonathan Witmer, Yaz Terajima Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Wait a Minute: The Efficacy of Discounting versus Non-Pecuniary Payment Steering Staff working paper 2016-8 Angelika Welte Merchants who accept credit cards face payment processing fees. In most countries, the no-surcharge rule prohibits them from using surcharges to pass these fees on to customers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E5, E58, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Money and payments, Retail payments
CBDC and Monetary Sovereignty Staff analytical note 2020-5 Antonio Diez de los Rios, Yu Zhu In an increasingly digitalized world, issuers of private digital currency can weaken central banks’ ability to stabilize the economy. By continuing to make central bank money attractive as a payment instrument in a digital world, a central bank digital currency (CDBC) could help to maintain a country’s monetary sovereignty. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F5, F55, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
June 17, 2016 Fintech and the Financial Ecosystem: Evolution or Revolution? Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Payments Canada Calgary, Alberta Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins calls for the public and private sectors to work closely together to realize fintech’s full benefits and minimize its risks. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Currency, Digital currency, Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Fintech