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2154 Results

November 14, 2013

Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach

This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use to assess vulnerabilities.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E6, E66, G, G0, G01

Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19

Staff working paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai
We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model.

A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth

Staff working paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel
This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data.

Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature

Staff analytical note 2018-3 Renaud St-Cyr
The paper reviews evidence from the economic literature on the nature of the relationship between excess capacity and inflation, better known as the Phillips curve. In particular, we examine the linearity of this relationship. This is an important issue in the current economic context in which advanced economies are approaching or exceed their potential output.
September 10, 2020

Economic progress report: a very uneven recovery

Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem The Canadian Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and explains the uneven impact that the COVID-19 pandemic is having on different sectors and people.

Cash, COVID-19 and the Prospects for a Canadian Digital Dollar

Staff discussion paper 2022-17 Walter Engert, Kim Huynh
We provide an analysis of cash trends in Canada before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also consider the potential two scenarios for issuance of a central bank digital currency in Canada: the emergence of a cashless society or the widespread use of an alternative digital currency in Canada. Finally, we discuss the Canadian experience in maintaining cash as an efficient and accessible method of payment and store of value.

Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium

Staff discussion paper 2018-7 Russell Barnett, Konrad Zmitrowicz
During and after the Great Recession of 2008–09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, to provide additional monetary stimulus.
June 11, 2009

BoC-GEM: Modelling the World Economy

BoC-GEM, an adaptation of the Global Economy Model, initially developed at the International Monetary Fund and the New York Federal Reserve, is a very useful tool to tackle a broad range of issues pertinent to the current economic context, such as the recent movements in commodity prices and the adjustment of global imbalances. This article describes the structure and functioning of BoC-GEM and details some examples of recent application in the areas of monetary policy and issues in the real economy and questions of financial stability and describes ongoing research into introducing a financial sector into the model.
December 23, 2003

The Comparative Growth of Goods and Services Prices

For several decades, the prices of services have been rising more rapidly than the prices of goods in Canada and the other major industrialized countries. In 2002, this gap between the growth rates of these two components of the consumer price index (CPI) widened considerably, leading researchers to ask if this was the beginning of a trend. Analysis reveals, however, that the gap is based on short-term dynamics and that it appears to be independent of the trend in the development of the overall price level. Evidence also shows that the gap is eventually reabsorbed. The authors examine a number of potential causes for the prices of services to rise faster than those of goods. These include the more rapid pace of productivity growth in the goods sector, the greater openness of goods to foreign trade, and stronger growth in the demand for services.
April 9, 2009

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009

Spring 2009
Examination of progress in the Bank’s exploration of two alternatives to the current inflation-targeting framework: (i) lowering the inflation target and (ii) shifting to a price-level target; a review of arguments for and against price-level targeting, focusing on its costs and benefits compared with inflation targeting; assessing the merits of price-level targeting vis-à-vis inflation targeting from a debt-revaluation perspective; quantifying redistribution of wealth in Canada in the face of unexpected inflation.
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