Tendance des dépenses publiques et de l'inflation et évolution comparative du taux de chômage au Canada et aux États-Unis Staff Working Paper 1998-3 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier The authors' purpose in this paper is to isolate the respective contributions of budgetary and monetary policy in Canada and the United States to the behaviour of unemployment rates in the two countries. Their method consists of estimating VAR models and using long-term identification restrictions to perform a structural analysis. Budgetary policy shocks are defined […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6
The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending Staff Working Paper 2024-2 Phoebe Tian This paper examines inefficiencies arising from a lack of long-term contracting in small business lending in China. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D86, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L14, L2, L26
What Explains Month-End Funding Pressure in Canada? Staff Discussion Paper 2017-9 Christopher S. Sutherland The Canadian overnight repo market persistently shows signs of latent funding pressure around month-end periods. Both the overnight repo rate and Bank of Canada liquidity provision tend to rise in these windows. This paper proposes three non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain this phenomenon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F36, G, G1, G14, G15, G2, G21
Labour Force Participation: A Comparison of the United States and Canada Staff Analytical Note 2017-9 James Ketcheson, Natalia Kyui, Benoit Vincent This note explores the drivers behind the recent increase in the US participation rate in the labour market and assesses the likelihood of a similar gain in Canada. The growth in the US participation rate has largely been due to a pickup in the participation of prime-age workers following a post-recession decline. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21
Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Staff Analytical Note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52
Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute Staff Working Paper 2020-10 Jinggang Guo, Craig Johnston We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Market structure and pricing, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, Q, Q1, Q17
Potential benefits and key risks of fiat-referenced cryptoassets Staff Analytical Note 2022-20 Hugh Ding, Natasha Khan, Bena Lands, Cameron MacDonald, Laura Zhao Cryptoassets that reference a national currency (commonly known as stablecoins) aim to peg their value to the reference currency and typically use a reserve of traditional financial assets to maintain the peg. The market value of these fiat-referenced cryptoassets has grown more than thirtyfold between early 2020 and mid-2022. We explore some of their potential benefits and key risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G2, G28, L, O, O3
Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data Staff Discussion Paper 2017-5 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E3, E37
August 22, 2012 Globalisation, Financial Stability and Employment Remarks Mark Carney Canadian Auto Workers (CAW) Toronto, Ontario Governor Mark Carney discusses globalization, financial stability and employment. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
New Phillips Curve with Alternative Marginal Cost Measures for Canada, the United States, and the Euro Area Staff Working Paper 2001-25 Edith Gagnon, Hashmat Khan Recent research on the new Phillips curve (NPC) (e.g., Galí, Gertler, and López-Salido 2001a) gives marginal cost an important role in capturing pressures on inflation. In this paper we assess the case for using alternative measures of marginal cost to improve the empirical fit of the NPC. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31