Labour Force Participation: A Comparison of the United States and Canada Staff Analytical Note 2017-9 James Ketcheson, Natalia Kyui, Benoit Vincent This note explores the drivers behind the recent increase in the US participation rate in the labour market and assesses the likelihood of a similar gain in Canada. The growth in the US participation rate has largely been due to a pickup in the participation of prime-age workers following a post-recession decline. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21
Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine Staff Working Paper 2004-3 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
December 15, 2020 Trading for a sustainable recovery Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Governor Tiff Macklem talks about how important trade is for the economic recovery. He discusses what policymakers and business leaders can do to encourage growth in trade. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy, Productivity, Service sector, Trade integration
June 7, 2018 Financial System Review: Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Risks—June 2018 This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that high household indebtedness and housing market imbalances remain the most important vulnerabilities. While these vulnerabilities remain elevated, policy measures continue to improve the resilience of the financial system. A third vulnerability highlighted in the FSR concerns cyber threats to an interconnected financial system. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Do hedge funds support liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market? Staff Analytical Note 2023-11 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala While Government of Canada bond transactions of hedge funds are typically in the opposite direction to those of other market participants, during the peak period of market turmoil in March 2020, hedge funds sold these bonds, just as other market participants did. This shows that hedge funds can at times contribute to one-sided markets and amplify declines in market liquidity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G14, G2, G23
The reliance of Canadians on credit card debt as a predictor of financial stress Staff Analytical Note 2024-18 Jia Qi Xiao I analyze the relationship between carrying a credit card balance and future financial stress. I find that carrying a balance significantly increases the likelihood that credit card holders miss future debt payments. This likelihood tends to rise as credit card balances grow and are held for long periods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21
The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices Staff Analytical Note 2025-20 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C3, C36, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G11, G12, G2, G23
Hedge Funds and Financial Stability: The State of the Debate Staff Discussion Paper 2007-9 Michael R. King, Philipp Maier The authors review the state of the debate on hedge funds and the potential threat that hedge funds pose to financial stability. The collapse of a hedge fund or a group of hedge funds might pose a systemic risk directly by damaging systematically important financial institutions, or indirectly by increasing market volatility and generating a […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G15, G18, G2
Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth Staff Discussion Paper 2017-15 Mark Kruger, Walter Steingress, Sri Thanabalasingam Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F17, O, O1, O10
Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Staff Analytical Note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52