December 9, 1994 The term structure of interest rates as a leading indicator of economic activity: A technical note Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1994-1995 Kevin Clinton The spread between long-term and short-term interest rates has proven to be an excellent predictor of changes of economic activity in Canada. As a general rule, when long-term interest rates have been much above short-term rates, strong increases in output have followed within about a year; however, whenever the yield curve has been inverted for any extended period of time, a recession has followed. Similar findings exist for other countries, including the United States. But although Canadian and U.S. interest rates generally move quite closely together, the Canadian yield curve has been distinctly better at predicting future Canadian output. The explanation given for this result is that the term spread has reflected both current monetary conditions, which affect short-term interest rates, and expected real returns on investment and expectations of inflation, which are the main determinants of long-term rates. This article is mainly a summary of econometric work done at the Bank. It also touches on some of the extensive recent literature in this area. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary and financial indicators
Information Contagion and Systemic Risk Staff Working Paper 2017-29 Co-Pierre Georg, Toni Ahnert We examine the effect of ex-post information contagion on the ex-ante level of systemic risk defined as the probability of joint bank default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G11, G2, G21
Modélisation « PAC » du secteur extérieur de l'économie américaine Staff Working Paper 2004-3 Marc-André Gosselin, René Lalonde In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending Staff Working Paper 2024-2 Phoebe Tian This paper examines inefficiencies arising from a lack of long-term contracting in small business lending in China. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D86, G, G2, G21, L, L1, L14, L2, L26
The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications Staff Working Paper 2013-1 Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Gee Hee Hong We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes and average prices paid by consumers (“effective” prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many U.S. metropolitan areas. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5
June 7, 2018 Financial System Review: Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Risks—June 2018 This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that high household indebtedness and housing market imbalances remain the most important vulnerabilities. While these vulnerabilities remain elevated, policy measures continue to improve the resilience of the financial system. A third vulnerability highlighted in the FSR concerns cyber threats to an interconnected financial system. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Potential benefits and key risks of fiat-referenced cryptoassets Staff Analytical Note 2022-20 Hugh Ding, Natasha Khan, Bena Lands, Cameron MacDonald, Laura Zhao Cryptoassets that reference a national currency (commonly known as stablecoins) aim to peg their value to the reference currency and typically use a reserve of traditional financial assets to maintain the peg. The market value of these fiat-referenced cryptoassets has grown more than thirtyfold between early 2020 and mid-2022. We explore some of their potential benefits and key risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G2, G28, L, O, O3
Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute Staff Working Paper 2020-10 Jinggang Guo, Craig Johnston We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Market structure and pricing, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, Q, Q1, Q17
Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report Staff Analytical Note 2017-21 André Binette, Dmitri Tchebotarev This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32, E37, E5, E52
August 22, 2012 Globalisation, Financial Stability and Employment Remarks Mark Carney Canadian Auto Workers (CAW) Toronto, Ontario Governor Mark Carney discusses globalization, financial stability and employment. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks