November 14, 2013 Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2013 Gurnain Pasricha, Tom Roberts, Ian Christensen, Brad Howell This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use to assess vulnerabilities. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E6, E66, G, G0, G01
February 1, 2012 Governance and Financial Fragility Financial System Review - December 2003 Michael Francis Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth Staff working paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C38, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
June 15, 2007 Interpreting Canada's Productivity Performance in the Past Decade: Lessons from Recent Research Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2007 Richard Dion Dion examines the evolution of Canadian productivity since the mid-1990s, using the United States as a benchmark. During this period, trend productivity growth in Canada remained modest, whereas the U.S. witnessed a strong resurgence. Among the factors identified as potential root causes of Canada's lower productivity performance are a lower investment in information and communications technology, reallocation and adjustment costs associated with large relative price movements, and a weak demand for innovation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff working paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Money and payments, Retail payments
September 10, 2020 Economic progress report: a very uneven recovery Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem The Canadian Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and explains the uneven impact that the COVID-19 pandemic is having on different sectors and people. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
November 18, 2014 Inflation Targeting in the Post-Crisis Era Remarks Agathe Côté Calgary CFA Society Calgary, Alberta Deputy Governor Agathe Côté discusses the inflation-targeting framework and issues the Bank is researching in the run-up to the renewal of the framework in 2016. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
December 11, 2007 The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2007-2008 Claude Lavoie, Stephen Murchison One of the most important factors that must be considered if countries are thinking about lowering the target level of inflation much below 2 per cent is the zero interest bound. Targeting inflation rates that are too low, the authors note, may restrict the ability of monetary policy to respond to economic shocks by limiting the amount by which interest rates can be eased. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
February 17, 2011 Adverse Selection and Financial Crises Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2010-2011 Koralai Kirabaeva The recent financial crisis has highlighted the importance of adverse selection as a contributing factor to financial market instability. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
August 24, 2010 Re-examining Canada’s Monetary Policy Framework: Recent Research and Outstanding Issues Remarks John Murray Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario I am honoured to address members of the Canadian Association for Business Economics. My remarks today will focus on critical issues that the Bank of Canada has studied over the past four years and how this research will inform our work as we move forward post crisis. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks