Bank Market Power and Central Bank Digital Currency: Theory and Quantitative Assessment Staff Working Paper 2019-20 Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang, Yu Zhu We show that issuing a deposit-like central bank digital currency (CBDC) with a proper interest rate would encourage banks to pay higher interest to keep their customers. Banks would then attract more deposits and offer more loans. Hence, a CBDC would not necessarily crowd out private banking. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58
Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research Staff Discussion Paper 2008-3 Richard Dion, Robert Fay The authors provide an extensive review of the rapidly expanding research on productivity, both at the macro and micro levels. They focus primarily on papers written about Canada, but also draw on selected studies from other countries, especially the United States, where such work sheds important light on particular aspects of productivity growth. The authors […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O3, O31, O4, O40, O47
Prévision et analyse de la production manufacturière au Canada : comparaison de modèles linéaires et non linéaires Staff Working Paper 2004-40 Frédérick Demers In this paper, the author describes reduced-form linear and non-linear econometric models developed to forecast and analyze quarterly data on output growth in the Canadian manufacturing sector from 1981 to 2003. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C53
A Simple Test of Simple Rules: Can They Improve How Monetary Policy is Implemented with Inflation Targets? Staff Working Paper 2003-31 Nicholas Rowe, David Tulk The authors evaluate whether an assortment of simple rules could improve how the Bank of Canada implements its inflation-targeting monetary policy. They focus on measuring the correlation between the deviations of inflation from the target and the lagged deviations of rule recommendations from the actual policy interest rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5
November 26, 2024 Sticking the landing: Keeping inflation at 2% Remarks Rhys R. Mendes Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes discusses how monetary policy worked to bring inflation back down to target and why the Bank wants inflation to stay close to 2%. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Price stability
Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2002-29 David Bolder, Scott Gusba This paper continues the work started by Bolder and Stréliski (1999) and considers two alternative classes of models for extracting zero-coupon and forward rates from a set of observed Government of Canada bond and treasury-bill prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1
Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico Staff Working Paper 2003-17 Jeannine Bailliu, Daniel Garcés, Mark Kruger, Miguel Messmacher The authors apply existing inflation models that have worked well in industrialized countries to Mexico, an emerging market that has recently moved to adopt an inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy. They compare the performance of these models with a mark-up model that has been used extensively to analyze inflation in Mexico. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37
The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Role of Market Microstructure Variables Staff Working Paper 2000-23 Nikola Gradojevic, Jing Yang Artificial neural networks (ANN) are employed for high-frequency Canada/U.S. dollar exchange rate forecasting. ANN outperform random walk and linear models in a number of recursive out-of- sample forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, F, F3, F31
Composition of International Capital Flows: A Survey Staff Working Paper 2010-33 Koralai Kirabaeva, Assaf Razin We survey several key mechanisms that explain the composition of international capital flows: foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment and debt flows (bank loans and bonds). In particular, we focus on the following market frictions: asymmetric information in capital markets and exposure to liquidity shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, F, F2, F21, F3, F34
Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level Staff Working Paper 2001-16 Gerald Stuber This paper surveys recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature on the economic implications of uncertainty about the longer-term outlook for inflation. In particular, the linkages between inflation, long-run inflation uncertainty, and aggregate economic activity in industrial economies have become considerably better understood during the past decade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E31, E4, E44