The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices Staff Analytical Note 2025-20 Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang Trading flows affect Government of Canada bond prices. Our estimates suggest a sale of 1% of the available supply of bonds typically lowers bond prices by 0.2%. From 2000 to 2025, demand from institutional investors, such as Canadian pension funds and foreign investors, explains 69% of quarterly price variation, with the remainder explained by changes in the supply of bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C3, C36, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G11, G12, G2, G23
Do hedge funds support liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market? Staff Analytical Note 2023-11 Jabir Sandhu, Rishi Vala While Government of Canada bond transactions of hedge funds are typically in the opposite direction to those of other market participants, during the peak period of market turmoil in March 2020, hedge funds sold these bonds, just as other market participants did. This shows that hedge funds can at times contribute to one-sided markets and amplify declines in market liquidity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G14, G2, G23
The reliance of Canadians on credit card debt as a predictor of financial stress Staff Analytical Note 2024-18 Jia Qi Xiao I analyze the relationship between carrying a credit card balance and future financial stress. I find that carrying a balance significantly increases the likelihood that credit card holders miss future debt payments. This likelihood tends to rise as credit card balances grow and are held for long periods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21
Tendance des dépenses publiques et de l'inflation et évolution comparative du taux de chômage au Canada et aux États-Unis Staff Working Paper 1998-3 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier The authors' purpose in this paper is to isolate the respective contributions of budgetary and monetary policy in Canada and the United States to the behaviour of unemployment rates in the two countries. Their method consists of estimating VAR models and using long-term identification restrictions to perform a structural analysis. Budgetary policy shocks are defined […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6
The State of Labour Market Churn in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2019-4 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu The literature highlights that labour market churn, including job-to-job transitions, is a key element of wage growth. Using microdata from the Labour Force Survey, we compute measures of labour market churn and compare these with pre-crisis averages to assess implications for wage growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J6, J63
The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications Staff Working Paper 2013-1 Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Gee Hee Hong We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes and average prices paid by consumers (“effective” prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many U.S. metropolitan areas. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5
From LVTS to Lynx: Quantitative Assessment of Payment System Transition Staff Working Paper 2023-24 Ajit Desai, Zhentong Lu, Hiru Rodrigo, Jacob Sharples, Phoebe Tian, Nellie Zhang We quantitatively assess the changes in participants’ payment behaviour from modernizing Canada's high-value payments system to Lynx. Our analysis suggests that Lynx's liquidity-saving mechanism encourages liquidity pooling and early payments submission, resulting in improved efficiency for participants but with slightly increased payment delays. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C10, E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28
Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth Staff Discussion Paper 2017-15 Mark Kruger, Walter Steingress, Sri Thanabalasingam Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F17, O, O1, O10
The Microstructure of Financial Derivatives Markets: Exchange-Traded versus Over-the-Counter Technical Report No. 68 Brenda González-Hermosillo In this report the author focusses on the microstructure of derivatives markets. While the primary objective is to examine derivatives markets in Canada, the author also discusses certain developments in global derivatives markets that are bound to influence the functioning and development of financial markets in a small, open economy such as Canada's. It is […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10
The Effects of Bank Consolidation on Risk Capital Allocation and Market Liquidity Staff Working Paper 2002-5 Chris D'Souza, Alexandra Lai This paper investigates the effects of financial market consolidation on risk capital allocation in a financial institution and the implications for market liquidity in dealership markets. We show that an increase in financial market consolidation can have ambiguous effects on liquidity in foreign exchange and government securities markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G2, G28, G3, G31, G34