Persistent Debt and Business Cycles in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity Staff Working Paper 2023-17 Aubhik Khan, Soyoung Lee We examine the role of debt in amplifying and propagating recessions. Firms’ debt adjustment makes recessions deeper but makes expansions gradual. In particular, when the aggregate business leverage is ten percentage points above average, the half-life of the recovery doubles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E3, E30, E32
May 17, 2012 Inflation Targeting: The Recent International Experience Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2012 Robert Lavigne, Rhys R. Mendes, Subrata Sarker In the years since the 2006 renewal of Canada’s inflation-control agreement, monetary policy regimes have faced significant shocks, including the global economic and financial crisis. This article reviews the recent experience with inflation targeting, including the debate about the appropriate role of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability. In the aftermath of the crisis, both […] Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Credibility, Financial stability, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
March 21, 2017 Getting Down to Business: Investment and the Economic Outlook Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the factors affecting business investment and the implications for the economic outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
February 4, 2010 The Coming Thaw Remarks Mark Carney Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba It is a pleasure to be here in Winnipeg. Today, I intend to elaborate on elements of the Bank of Canada's economic outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Removal of the Unwinding Provisions in the Automated Clearing Settlement System: A Risk Assessment Staff Discussion Paper 2014-4 Nicholas Labelle, Varya Taylor A default in the Automated Clearing Settlement System (ACSS) occurs when a Direct Clearer is unable to settle its final obligation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G0, G01, G2, G3
Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates Staff Working Paper 2004-2 Richard Luger The author proposes a class of exact tests of the null hypothesis of exchangeable forecast errors and, hence, of the hypothesis of no difference in the unconditional accuracy of two competing forecasts. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53
The International Exposure of the Canadian Banking System Staff Working Paper 2025-1 Christian Friedrich, Hanno Friedrich, Nick Lawrence, Javier Cortes Orihuela, Phoebe Tian In 2023, the share of Canadian banks’ foreign assets and liabilities amounted to around 50%. While Canadian banks engage domestically mostly with households and non-financial corporations, their most common counterparties abroad are non-bank financial institutions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F23, F3, F31, F32, G, G2, G21, G23, G3
Outside Investor Access to Top Management: Market Monitoring versus Stock Price Manipulation Staff Working Paper 2020-43 Josef Schroth Should managers be paid in stock options if they provide stock-market participants with information about the firm? This paper studies how firm owners trade off the benefit of stock-price incentives and better-informed market participants against the cost of potential stock-price manipulation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D86, G, G1, G14, G3, G32, G34, M, M1, M12, M4, M41
Conditioning Information and Variance Bounds on Pricing Kernels with Higher-Order Moments: Theory and Evidence Staff Working Paper 2006-38 Fousseni Chabi-Yo The author develops a strategy for utilizing higher moments and conditioning information efficiently, and hence improves on the variance bounds computed by Hansen and Jagannathan (1991, the HJ bound) and Gallant, Hansen, and Tauchen (1990, the GHT bound). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, G, G1, G12, G13