Inflation, Learning and Monetary Policy Regimes in The G-7 Economies Staff Working Paper 1995-6 Nicholas Ricketts, David Rose In this paper, the authors report estimates of two- and three-state Markov switching models applied to inflation, measured using consumer price indexes, in the G-7 countries. They report tests that show that two-state models are preferred to simple one-state representations of the data, and argue that three-state representations are more satisfactory than two-state representations for […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices
On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity Staff Working Paper 2020-42 Ruben Hipp Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, C32, C5, C58, L, L1, L14
The Impact of Operational Events on the Network Structure of the LVTS Staff Discussion Paper 2011-7 Tom Roberts The author uses a quantitative network analysis approach to assess how participants in the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) respond to partial outages at other banks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C4, C49, G, G1, G14, G2, G21
November 19, 2019 Researching the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Miguel Molico The Bank of Canada has a mandate to “promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada,” primarily through the conduct of monetary policy and promotion of a safe, sound and efficient financial system. Understanding the macroeconomic and financial system impacts of climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy is therefore a priority for the Bank. Content Type(s): Staff research, Other Research Topic(s): Climate change
Order Aggressiveness and Quantity: How Are They Determined in a Limit Order Market? Staff Working Paper 2007-23 Ingrid Lo, Stephen Sapp Dealers trading in a limit order market must choose both the order aggressiveness and the quantity for their orders. We empirically investigate how dealers jointly make these decisions in the foreign exchange market using a unique simultaneous equations model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14
The Consumer Value Proposition for a Hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar Staff Discussion Paper 2024-16 Martine Warren, Bill Laur, Ted Garanzotis, Sebastian Hernandez We explore the consumer value proposition of a hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar, adoption considerations and the users who would benefit most from this potential new payment method. We employ a design-thinking consultation methodology, allowing participants to interact with research prototypes of increasing complexity to reveal user preferences, constraints and adoption influences. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Accessibility, Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, E5, E58, O, O3, O33
Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects Staff Working Paper 2019-16 Kerem Tuzcuoglu Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C25, C5, C58, G, G2, G24
Modelling Canadian mortgage debt and payments in a semi-structural model Staff Analytical Note 2024-1 Fares Bounajm, Austin McWhirter We show how Canadian mortgage debt dynamics can be modelled in a semi-structural macroeconomic model, such as the Bank of Canada’s LENS. The model we propose accounts for Canada’s unique mortgage debt structure. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E4, E43, E47, G, G5, G51
The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence Staff Working Paper 2022-11 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev Central banks in many advanced economies enjoy a high degree of independence, which protects monetary policy decisions from political influence. But how should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policy-makers? We examine whether a central bank should design a monetary policy framework that prescribes acting conditionally on how fiscal policy behaves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E62
Implementing Market-Based Indicators to Monitor Vulnerabilities of Financial Institutions Staff Analytical Note 2016-5 Cameron MacDonald, Maarten van Oordt, Robin Scott This note introduces several market-based indicators and examines how they can further inform the Bank of Canada’s vulnerability assessment of Canadian financial institutions. Market-based indicators of leverage suggest that the solvency risk for major Canadian banks has increased since the beginning of the oil-price correction in the second half of 2014. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G21