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3035 Results

November 19, 2019

Researching the Economic Impacts of Climate Change

The Bank of Canada has a mandate to “promote the economic and financial welfare of Canada,” primarily through the conduct of monetary policy and promotion of a safe, sound and efficient financial system. Understanding the macroeconomic and financial system impacts of climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy is therefore a priority for the Bank.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Other Research Topic(s): Climate change
August 15, 2013

Big Data Analysis: The Next Frontier

The formulation of monetary policy at the Bank of Canada relies on the analysis of a broad set of economic information. Greater availability of immediate and detailed information would improve real-time economic decision making. Technological advances have provided an opportunity to exploit “big data” - the vast amount of digital data from business transactions, social media and networked computers. Big data can be a complement to traditional information sources, offering fresh insight for the monitoring of economic activity and inflation.

The Economic Value of Realized Volatility: Using High-Frequency Returns for Option Valuation

Many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only. We investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13

The Countercyclical Capital Buffer and International Bank Lending: Evidence from Canada

Staff Working Paper 2021-61 David Xiao Chen, Christian Friedrich
We examine the impact of the CCyB on foreign lending activities of Canadian banks. We show that the announcement of a tightening in another country’s CCyB leads to a decrease in the growth rate of cross-border lending between Canadian banks and borrowers in that other country.

International Capital Flows and Bond Risk Premia

Staff Working Paper 2010-14 Jesus Sierra
This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, F, F3, F31, F32, F34, G, G1, G11, G12, G15

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021

We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4

An Anatomy of Firms’ Political Speech

Staff Working Paper 2024-37 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song, Sebastian Sotelo
We study the distribution of political speech across U.S. firms. We develop a measure of political engagement based on firms’ communications (earning calls, regulatory filings, and social media) by training a large language model to identify statements that contain political opinions. Using these data, we document five facts about firms’ political engagement.

An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-14 Lise Pichette, Maria Bernier, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille
In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E0, E5
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