November 18, 2014 Inflation Targeting in the Post-Crisis Era Remarks Agathe Côté Calgary CFA Society Calgary, Alberta Deputy Governor Agathe Côté discusses the inflation-targeting framework and issues the Bank is researching in the run-up to the renewal of the framework in 2016. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Climate Change and Monetary Policy: Navigating Physical Risks Staff analytical paper 2026-44 Tatjana Dahlhaus Weather-related disasters can reduce output while increasing inflation, creating difficult trade-offs for monetary policy. This note reviews evidence on the macroeconomic effects of physical climate risks and uses a structural model to assess how more frequent and severe disasters could shape future monetary policy challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E1, E12, E3, E31, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Climate change
June 15, 2007 Interpreting Canada's Productivity Performance in the Past Decade: Lessons from Recent Research Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2007 Richard Dion Dion examines the evolution of Canadian productivity since the mid-1990s, using the United States as a benchmark. During this period, trend productivity growth in Canada remained modest, whereas the U.S. witnessed a strong resurgence. Among the factors identified as potential root causes of Canada's lower productivity performance are a lower investment in information and communications technology, reallocation and adjustment costs associated with large relative price movements, and a weak demand for innovation. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
November 14, 2013 Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2013 Gurnain Pasricha, Tom Roberts, Ian Christensen, Brad Howell This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use to assess vulnerabilities. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): E, E6, E66, G, G0, G01
A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth Staff working paper 2017-2 Tony Chernis, Rodrigo Sekkel This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C38, C5, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature Staff discussion paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Understanding Firms’ Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey Staff working paper 2016-7 Simon Richards, Matthieu Verstraete Inflation expectations are a key determinant of actual and future inflation and thus matter for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how firms form their inflation expectations using quarterly firm-level data from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, spanning the 2001 to 2015 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C2, C25, D, D2, D21, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff working paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Money and payments, Retail payments
August 23, 2011 How People Think and How It Matters Remarks Jean Boivin Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario In his speech entitled “How People Think and How it Matters,” delivered to the Canadian Association for Business Economics, Deputy Governor Jean Boivin reviews various ways people form expectations and how these affect monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
September 10, 2020 Economic progress report: a very uneven recovery Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem The Canadian Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and explains the uneven impact that the COVID-19 pandemic is having on different sectors and people. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework