Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018 Staff Analytical Note 2025-18 Alexander Lam US trade protectionism is making the economic outlook increasingly uncertain. To assess how consumer prices may respond to tariffs, we examine a tariff episode from 2018 using detailed microdata and the synthetic control method. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, F, F1, F10, F13, F14
Une analyse empirique du lien entre la productivité et le taux de change réel Canada-É-U Staff Working Paper 2000-22 David Dupuis, David Tessier The relative productivity gap between Canada and the United States is a controversial subject matter. One argument especially contentious in this debate stems from the belief that the gradual depreciation of the Canadian dollar over the last 20 years has been one of the determinants of the productivity gap. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers
Unpacking Moving: A Quantitative Spatial Equilibrium Model with Wealth Staff Working Paper 2023-34 Elisa Giannone, Qi Li, Nuno Paixão, Xinle Pang We propose a model to understand low observed migration rates by considering the interaction between location and wealth decisions. We look at different policies and find that temporary moving vouchers only slightly increase welfare, while lower housing regulations can decrease the welfare gap by lowering house prices nationwide. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Housing, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): G, G5, G51, R, R1, R12, R13, R2, R3, R31, R5, R52
Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates Staff Working Paper 1995-1 Christopher Ragan In this paper, the author uses the term structure of nominal interest rates to construct estimates of agents' expectations of inflation over several medium-term forecast horizons. The Expectations Hypothesis is imposed together with the assumption that expected future real interest rates are given by current real rates. Under these maintained assumptions, it is possible to […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates
Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff Working Paper 2020-7 Kim Huynh, Jozsef Molnar, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Qinghui Yu Using a two-stage model, we study the determinants of Canadian consumers’ choices of payment method at the point of sale. We estimate consumer preferences and adoption costs for various combinations of payment methods. We analyze how introducing a central bank digital currency would affect the market equilibrium. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52
Global Factors and Inflation in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2017-17 Dany Brouillette, Laurence Savoie-Chabot This note investigates whether the recent weakness in inflation in Canada can be related to global factors not included in the current staff analytical framework (domestic slack, movements in commodity prices and in the exchange rate). A global common factor for inflation among selected advanced economies appears to contain marginal information for Canadian inflation beyond what is found in movements in commodity prices and the exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
December 21, 2007 Financial System Review - December 2007 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Allocative Efficiency and the Productivity Slowdown Staff Working Paper 2021-1 Lin Shao, Rongsheng Tang In our analysis of the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 2000s, we find that a significant portion of this deceleration can be attributed to a lack of improvement in allocative efficiency across sectors. Our analysis further identifies increased sector-level volatility as a major contributor to this lack of improvement in allocative efficiency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, O, O4, O47
Monetary Policy Tradeoffs Between Financial Stability and Price Stability Staff Working Paper 2016-49 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt We analyze the impact of interest rate policy on financial stability in an environment where banks can experience runs on their short-term liabilities, forcing them to sell assets at fire-sale prices. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01
Managing GDP Tail Risk Staff Working Paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01