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3046 Results

Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models

Staff Working Paper 2014-13 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine
Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12

The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States

Staff Working Paper 2018-19 Anna Maria Mayda, Giovanni Peri, Walter Steingress
In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, J, J6, J61

Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans

Staff Working Paper 2023-54 Michael Boutros, Nuno Clara, Francisco Gomes
We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost.

Money and Price Posting under Private Information

Staff Working Paper 2011-22 Mei Dong, Janet Hua Jiang
We study price posting with undirected search in a search-theoretic monetary model with divisible money and divisible goods. Ex ante homogeneous buyers experience match specific preference shocks in bilateral trades. The shocks follow a continuous distribution and the realization of the shocks is private information.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E3, E31

Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities

Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan
We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances.

The Impact of Bankruptcy Reform on Insolvency Choice and Consumer Credit

Staff Working Paper 2016-26 Jason Allen, Kiana Basiri
We examine the impact of the 2009 amendments to the Canadian Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act on insolvency decisions. Rule changes steered debtors out of division I proposals and into the more cost-effective division II proposals.

Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Staff Working Paper 1995-1 Christopher Ragan
In this paper, the author uses the term structure of nominal interest rates to construct estimates of agents' expectations of inflation over several medium-term forecast horizons. The Expectations Hypothesis is imposed together with the assumption that expected future real interest rates are given by current real rates. Under these maintained assumptions, it is possible to […]
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