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2094 Results

Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market Deteriorated?

Staff analytical note 2018-31 Chen Fan, Sermin Gungor, Guillaume Nolin, Jun Yang
Since 2010, the liquidity of corporate bonds has improved on average, while their trading activity has remained stable. We find that the liquidity and trading activity of riskier bonds or bonds issued by firms in different sectors have been stable. However, the liquidity and trading activity of bonds issued by banks have improved. We observe short-lived episodes of deterioration in liquidity and trading activity.

IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity

We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.
November 8, 1994

The demand for currency and the underground economy

The underground economy in Canada has attracted increased attention over the past few years, yet there is no precise way to measure its size. Recent estimates vary between 4 per cent and 15 per cent of gross domestic product. This article provides an overview of measurement issues and recent estimates. It then focusses on the "monetary" approach to estimating the size of the underground economy. This approach is based on the assumption that the demand for bank notes provides a clue as to the size of the underground economy. The article concludes that estimates that use this approach must be viewed with considerable caution. They are based on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify and that significantly affect the results.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Monetary aggregates
October 20, 2025

Business Outlook Survey—Third Quarter of 2025

Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse reveal that firms’ outlooks and intentions remain subdued despite a gradual improvement in sentiment. Expectations for growth in domestic and export sales are still soft. Most firms do not plan to increase staffing, and investment intentions are restrained. While businesses continue to expect cost increases from tariffs and trade uncertainty, weak demand limits their ability to pass these costs through to prices. One-year-ahead inflation expectations remain below the peak reached earlier in the trade conflict.
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