Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency Staff Working Paper 2020-7 Kim Huynh, Jozsef Molnar, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, Qinghui Yu Using a two-stage model, we study the determinants of Canadian consumers’ choices of payment method at the point of sale. We estimate consumer preferences and adoption costs for various combinations of payment methods. We analyze how introducing a central bank digital currency would affect the market equilibrium. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52
The increasing role of hedge funds in Government of Canada bond auctions Staff Analytical Note 2025-22 Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao We find that the rise in Government of Canada debt issuance correlates to growing participation of hedge funds in bond auctions since 2020. This increased participation supports the cost-effective distribution of Canada’s debt, but it also represents a potential vulnerability because hedge funds have a greater flight risk than other investor types. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12, G2, G23, H, H6, H63
A Microfounded Design of Interconnectedness-Based Macroprudential Policy Staff Working Paper 2016-6 Jose Fique To address the challenges posed by global systemically important banks (G-SIBs), the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision recommended an “additional loss absorbency requirement” for these institutions. Along these lines, I develop a microfounded design of capital surcharges that target the interconnectedness component of systemic risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D85, G, G2, G21, G28
Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans Staff Working Paper 2023-54 Michael Boutros, Nuno Clara, Francisco Gomes We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models, Financial markets, Labour markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E2, G, G5, H, H3
Global Factors and Inflation in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2017-17 Dany Brouillette, Laurence Savoie-Chabot This note investigates whether the recent weakness in inflation in Canada can be related to global factors not included in the current staff analytical framework (domestic slack, movements in commodity prices and in the exchange rate). A global common factor for inflation among selected advanced economies appears to contain marginal information for Canadian inflation beyond what is found in movements in commodity prices and the exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
June 21, 2008 Family Values: Ownership Structure, Performance, and Capital Structure of Canadian Firms Financial System Review - June 2008 Michael R. King, Eric Santor Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil Staff Working Paper 2020-39 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q47
Une analyse empirique du lien entre la productivité et le taux de change réel Canada-É-U Staff Working Paper 2000-22 David Dupuis, David Tessier The relative productivity gap between Canada and the United States is a controversial subject matter. One argument especially contentious in this debate stems from the belief that the gradual depreciation of the Canadian dollar over the last 20 years has been one of the determinants of the productivity gap. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers
December 21, 2007 Financial System Review - December 2007 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Allocative Efficiency and the Productivity Slowdown Staff Working Paper 2021-1 Lin Shao, Rongsheng Tang In our analysis of the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 2000s, we find that a significant portion of this deceleration can be attributed to a lack of improvement in allocative efficiency across sectors. Our analysis further identifies increased sector-level volatility as a major contributor to this lack of improvement in allocative efficiency. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, O, O4, O47