The Political Impact of Immigration: Evidence from the United States Staff Working Paper 2018-19 Anna Maria Mayda, Giovanni Peri, Walter Steingress In this paper we study the impact of immigration to the United States on the vote for the Republican Party by analyzing county-level data on election outcomes between 1990 and 2010. Our main contribution is to separate the effect of high-skilled and low-skilled immigrants, by exploiting the different geography and timing of the inflows of these two groups of immigrants. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, J, J6, J61
Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, R, R2, R21, R3, R31
The Long-Term Effects of Cross-Listing, Investor Recognition, and Ownership Structure on Valuation Staff Working Paper 2006-44 Michael R. King, Dan Segal The authors show that the widening of a foreign firm's U.S. investor base and the improved information environment associated with cross-listing on a U.S. exchange each have a separately identifiable effect on a firm's valuation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G15
The Role of Intermediaries in Selection Markets: Evidence from Mortgage Lending Staff Working Paper 2023-12 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde, Shaoteng Li, Anna Trubnikova This paper looks at the role mortgage brokers play in helping borrowers generate quotes and qualify for credit. We find that, on average, borrowers that engage with a mortgage broker pay lower interest rates. However, in about 15% of cases, borrowers are steered towards longer amortizing mortgages than they would have chosen absent a broker. Since mortgages with longer amortization have higher total interest costs over the entire life of the mortgage, this steering is expensive. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L2
Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil Staff Working Paper 2011-16 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
The U.S.-Dollar Supranational Zero-Coupon Curve Staff Discussion Paper 2012-5 Francisco Rivadeneyra The author describes the construction of the U.S.-dollar-denominated zero-coupon curve for the supranational asset class from 1995 to 2010. He uses yield data from a crosssection of bonds issued by AAA-rated supranational entities to fit the Svensson (1995) term-structure model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G15
Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles? Technical Report No. 78 Alain Guay, Pierre St-Amant In this paper, the authors examine how well the Hodrick-Prescott filter (HP) and the band-pass filter recently proposed by Baxter and King (BK) extract the business-cycle component of macroeconomic time series. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E32
More Money for Some: The Redistributive Effects of Open Market Operations Staff Working Paper 2021-46 Christian Bustamante I use a search-theoretic model of money to study how open market operations affect the conduct of monetary policy and what this means for households along the wealth distribution. In the model, households vary in the size and composition of their portfolios, which in turn implies that they may be unevenly affected by open market operations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E5, E52
The increasing role of hedge funds in Government of Canada bond auctions Staff Analytical Note 2025-22 Adam Epp, Jeffrey Gao We find that the rise in Government of Canada debt issuance correlates to growing participation of hedge funds in bond auctions since 2020. This increased participation supports the cost-effective distribution of Canada’s debt, but it also represents a potential vulnerability because hedge funds have a greater flight risk than other investor types. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12, G2, G23, H, H6, H63
A Microfounded Design of Interconnectedness-Based Macroprudential Policy Staff Working Paper 2016-6 Jose Fique To address the challenges posed by global systemically important banks (G-SIBs), the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision recommended an “additional loss absorbency requirement” for these institutions. Along these lines, I develop a microfounded design of capital surcharges that target the interconnectedness component of systemic risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D85, G, G2, G21, G28