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The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate.

Overall, results of the second-quarter 2025 survey show that the CSCE indicator—a measure developed to summarize the opinions of Canadian consumers—declined again this quarter as spending intentions continued to weaken due to the persistent threats of tariffs and related uncertainty. Consumers still see the labour market as soft, and their fear of job loss is elevated. The trade conflict is leading consumers to become increasingly cautious about their spending plans and to change their spending behaviour. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations have changed little since increasing markedly in the first quarter of 2025. This quarter, more consumers cited tariffs as the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation.

The authors examine the recent evolution of commodity prices. They discuss the factors behind the price declines that occurred between the summer of 1997 and the end of 1998, including the key supply factors and the drop in Asian demand caused by that region's concurrent financial and economic crisis. They then review the effects of the reduction in world commodity prices on economic activity in Canada. They point out that the depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, together with the continued strength of the U.S. economy, has partly offset the negative effects on Canadian aggregate demand.

Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses the latest interest rate decision along with how immigration helps Canada’s economy and how it impacts inflation.

In November 2000, the Bank of Canada introduced a new system of eight "fixed" or pre-specified dates each year for announcing any changes to the official interest rate it uses to implement monetary policy. This paper describes the basic features of the proposed approach, elaborates its key advantages and identifies issues for consultation.

This report lays out elements of the Bank’s strategy related to climate change and details how the issue will be managed holistically across the organization, following the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures.

Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the Bank of Canada’s role in ensuring the stability of money in all its forms, from currency to digital payments. He also outlines how keeping inflation low and stable ensures Canadian money retains its purchasing power.

We develop an algorithm that extracts information about sale and repurchase agreements (repos) from disaggregated settlement data in order to generate a new historical dataset for research.

Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I welcome the opportunity to appear before you to discuss the Bank of Canada’s actions in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Since the pandemic began, the Bank has had two goals in mind. In the short term, we have been working to help […]

Press conference following the release of the Monetary Policy Report.