A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices Staff Analytical Note 2017-12 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger In this note, we present the Commodities Factor Model (CFM), a dynamic factor model for a large cross-section of energy and non-energy commodity prices. The model decomposes price changes in commodities into a common “global” component, a “block” component confined to subgroups of economically related commodities and an idiosyncratic price shock component. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, Q, Q0, Q02
Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence Staff Working Paper 2019-34 Alex Chernoff, Patrick Alexander We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics, Service sector JEL Code(s): F, F1, F10, F14, L, L8, L81
Growth in Emerging Market Economies and the Commodity Boom of 2003–2008: Evidence from Growth Forecast Revisions Staff Working Paper 2012-8 Elif Arbatli, Garima Vasishtha Demand for industrial raw materials from emerging economies, particularly emerging Asia, is widely believed to have fueled the surge in oil and industrial commodity prices during 2002-2008. The paper first presents a simple storage model in which commodity prices respond to market participant’s changing expectations of the future macroeconomic environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
On the Welfare Effects of Credit Arrangements Staff Working Paper 2012-43 Jonathan Chiu, Mei Dong, Enchuan Shao This paper studies the welfare effects of different credit arrangements and how these effects depend on the trading mechanism and inflation. In a competitive market, a deviation from the Friedman rule is always sub-optimal. Moreover, credit arrangements can be welfare-reducing, because increased consumption by credit users will drive up the price level so that money users have to reduce consumption when facing a binding liquidity restraint. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E50
Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work Staff Working Paper 2014-11 Christiane Baumeister, Pierre Guérin, Lutz Kilian The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, G, G1, G14, Q, Q4, Q43
Competing Currencies in the Laboratory Staff Working Paper 2017-53 Janet Hua Jiang, Cathy Zhang We investigate competition between two intrinsically worthless currencies as a result of decentralized interactions between human subjects. We design a laboratory experiment based on a simple two-country, two-currency search model to study factors that affect circulation patterns and equilibrium selection. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40
February 15, 2018 Anchoring Expectations: Canada’s Approach to Price Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Manitoba Association for Business Economists Winnipeg, Manitoba Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri examines the success of the Bank’s monetary policy framework and explains the review being undertaken before its renewal in 2021. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
December 12, 2011 Growth in the Age of Deleveraging Remarks Mark Carney Empire Club of Canada / Canadian Club of Toronto Toronto, Ontario Governor Mark Carney discusses the factors driving global deleveraging and the implications for economic growth in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Expropriation Risk and FDI in Developing Countries: Does Return of Capital Dominate Return on Capital? Staff Working Paper 2017-9 M. Akhtaruzzaman, Nathan Berg, Christopher Hajzler Previously reported effects of institutional quality and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) are mixed and, therefore, difficult to interpret. We present empirical evidence suggesting a relatively clear, statistically robust, and intuitive characterization. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, International financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, F, F2, F21, F23
Cyclical Behavior of Debt and Equity Using a Panel of Canadian Firms Staff Working Paper 2007-44 Francisco Covas, Wouter den Haan We document the cyclical behavior of debt, equity, and retained earnings for different firm categories using firm-level Canadian data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, G, G3, G32